Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 04 November 2022
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms Later Today into This Evening
Will Produce All Severe Thunderstorm Hazards Including Isolated
Tornadoes, Hail to 1 Inch Diameter or More as Well as Straight Line
Thunderstorm Wind Damage …
—-
AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) A dynamic upper level low pressure disturbance is quickly approaching Texas from the west this morning and it will move across the state by later today through tonight. As that occurs, an associated strong surface cold front will surge east southeastward across the IH35 corridor in the late afternoon into early evening hours. Scattered rain showers will be present through midday and into the afternoon today. In the 5pm to 8pm time period, as the maximum atmospheric lift occurs just ahead of the cold front, strong thunderstorms will likely develop within about 20 miles of the IH35 corridor/Austin metro area. Please note that this development could be just east of the area (Austin would miss out) or just west of the area or perhaps right overhead; the thunderstorms will form a north south line and then quickly move eastward as they become severe. Strong straight line thunderstorm wind, larger hail and even an isolated tornado are possible in the window of 5pm to 8pm. Once the front passes any given location, the severe weather threat will end quickly with rain chances tapering off west-to-east rather quickly as well.
(2) In the wake of the cold front late tonight, a cooler, drier and more stable air mass will take over with abundant sunshine and less humid conditions Saturday.
(4) South southeasterly winds return with low level moisture increasing late Saturday night into Monday and Tuesday of next week. Late night and early morning low clouds are expected with afternoon high temperatures warming to well above seasonal averages.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, 0.25 to 0.50 inch rainfall totals over the next seven day forecast period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the next seven days.
—-
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 04 November 2022
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy, breezy and unseasonably warm. Scattered rain showers continuing into the early and mid afternoon hours. Scattered strong thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat will develop after 5pm with possible large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind and even an isolated tornado especially northeast of Austin. Rainfall, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Scattered strong thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 8pm with possible large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind and even an isolated tornado especially northeast of Austin. Cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front passes around 7pm. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat for an hour or two in the wake of the front. Clouds decreasing after midnight. Additional rainfall, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Low 52. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph becoming more north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by early evening.
SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 74. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT….Clear. Low 50. Light northerly wind becoming calm.
SUNDAY….Sunshine and more humid. High 79. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds late. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 66. Light southeasterly wind.
TUESDAY /ELECTION DAY/…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. Light southeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 64. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 11 November through Thursday / 17 November 2022
Temperatures… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04Nov)………………………………………… 7:48 am
Sunset this evening (04Nov)………………………………………….. 6:41 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (05Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (05Nov)……………………………………………… 6:40 pm