Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 22 September 2023
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tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures Resulting in Higher Heat Stress Values …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) Warmer than average afternoon temperatures through much of the next seven day period.
(2) The latest guidance continues to suggest that a weak cold front will approach and move through the area Monday morning into midday. In a medium to high confidence forecast, I will continue better rain chances now that we’re seeing a little more consistency in the model and manual guidance. Even with a cold frontal passage, I expect temperatures behind the front to remain unseasonably warm.
(3) Once again, a drier weather pattern develops as high pressure aloft becomes more established by mid into latter parts of next week. Temperatures may rebound a couple of degrees as this occurs.
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, I expect 0.50 inch of rainfall for the IH35 corridor over the next seven day forecast period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high forecast confidence through Sunday then a medium to high confidence forecast for much of next week.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 22 September 2023
TODAY (22Sep)…. Early morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Afternoon heat index values 102 to 105 F. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with some low clouds after midnight. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY (23Sep)…. Early morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Afternoon heat index values 101 to 104 F. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with some low clouds after midnight. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY (24Sep)…. Early morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. Afternoon heat index values 103 to 106 F. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after 7pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Low 75. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY (25Sep)…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a weak cold front passes during the morning into midday hours. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. High 95. Southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more east northeasterly by afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 73. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY (26Sep)…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch or less. High 93. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY (27Sep)…. Mostly sunny. High 94. Light east southeasterly wind becoming more southerly by afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY (28Sep)…. Mostly sunny. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 29 September 2023 through Thursday / 04 October 2023
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22Sep)…………………………………………. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (22Sep)…………………………………………… 7:27 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23Sep)……………………………………………… 7:20 am
Sunset tomorrow (23Sep)………………………………………………. 7:26 pm