Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Few Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Into the Weekend (Fr/12Aug2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 12 August 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. Elevated Heat Indices with Above Average Temps Continuing ….
…. High Wildfire Danger Continues …
…. Lightning Threat and Gusty Winds with Any Thunderstorms …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With the upper level high pressure area continuing to be to our distant north and northwest, a series of weak disturbances has moved west southwestward over the last day or so. Rainfall amounts, especially along the IH35 corridor in the Austin metro area, have (so far) been disappointing with heaviest rains to the east, southeast and west of the IH35 corridor. I still think that we’ll see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for our area today into tomorrow but short range/high resolution model guidance isn’t that encouraging with most precipitation forecast to be south of the area.

(2) By the late in the weekend into next week, the upper level high will once again become a little stronger overhead with rain chances dropping from the forecast. As this occurs, afternoon high temperatures will rise once again with some triple digit afternoon high temperatures returning for Monday through Wednesday.

(3) A more unstable situation, with the upper level high pressure area moving more over the western United States, is forecast to develop by next Thursday and Friday as a surface cold front moves southward into parts of the state.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of 0.25″ to 0.50″ over our area over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 12 August 2022

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.25″ inch or less. High 100. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 8pm, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 77. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. High 100. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Isolated rain showers before 7pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 103. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 104. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 102. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 19 August through Thursday / 25 August 2022
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 Aug)………………………………………… 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (12 Aug)………………………………………….. 8:15 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13 Aug)…………………………………………….. 6:57 am
Sunset tomorrow (13 Aug)……………………………………………… 8:14 pm

Rain Chances Still There But My Confidence Down a Bit (Th/11Aug2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 11 August 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. Elevated Heat Indices with Above Average Temps Continuing ….
…. High Wildfire Danger Continues …
…. Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With the upper level high pressure area continuing to be to our distant north and northwest, a series of weak disturbances has moved west southwestward over the last day or so. Rainfall amounts, especially along the IH35 corridor in the Austin metro area, have (so far) been disappointing with heaviest rains to the east, southeast and west of the IH35 corridor. I still think that we’ll see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for our area today and tomorrow into Saturday but short range/high resolution model guidance isn’t that encouraging.

(2) By the late in the weekend through much of next week, the upper level high will once again become a little stronger overhead with rain chances dropping from the forecast. As this occurs, afternoon high temperatures will rise once again with some triple digit afternoon high temperatures returning.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of 0.25″ to 0.50″ over our area over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

—-

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 11 August 2022

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.25″ inch or less. High 101. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch. Low 77. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.25″ inch or less. High 99. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around thunderstorms.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 9pm, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 77. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. High 99. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Isolated rain showers before 7pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 103. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 18 August through Wednesday / 24 August 2022
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11 Aug)………………………………………… 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (11 Aug)………………………………………….. 8:16 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (12 Aug)…………………………………………….. 6:56 am
Sunset tomorrow (12 Aug)……………………………………………… 8:15 pm