Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Mostly Stable Summer Weather Pattern Forecast With Only Slim Rain and Storm Chances Today into Late Week; Saharan Dust Possible; Temperatures Near Seasonal Averages with Temperatures and Heat Stress Increasing Late Week into the Weekend (Mo/30Jun2025)

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for metro Austin at THIS LINK.

Remember, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility
to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx .
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so it
can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually)
of all NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..  Always check
the date and time of issuance of these NWS text products since, in periods of
tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Mo/30Jun…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Some Saharan Dust .. Slim Lightning Threat ..

Tu/01 Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Some Saharan Dust .. Slim Lightning Threat ..

We/02Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Some Saharan Dust .. Slim Lightning Threat ..

Th/03Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Slim Lightning Threat ..

Fr/04Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Slim Lightning Threat ..

Sa/05Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress..

Su/06Jul…
Excessive Afternoon Heat Stress .. 

7-DAY TEXAS TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…

Over the last day or two, the remnants of tropical cyclone Barry have moved ashore
into eastern Mexico
well south of Brownsville.
There is no tropical threat to the Texas coast over the next seven days. 

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A weak upper level ridge continues just to the east of the area. It will strengthen a little and become a bit more dominant by the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will combine with humidity to produce elevated afternoon heat stress levels through late week then more excessive values by the weekend.

(2) You may notice hazy conditions with Saharan dust in the area through the first half of the week.

(3) I believe that we’ll continue with a very slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms today into Friday but rain chances will admittedly be mainly east and southeast of the Austin metro area/IH35 corridor.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, my forecast is for less than 0.10 inch of  rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast period which ends in the early morning hours next Tuesday.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the next seven days.

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Monday / 30  June 2025

MONDAY (30Jun)…. Mostly sunny. Some haze with Saharan dust.
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat
east and southeast of the Austin metro/IH35 corridor.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20%  chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Highs in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 100 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT… Mostly clear.
Lows in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

TUESDAY (01Jul)…. Mostly sunny. Some haze with Saharan dust.
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat
east and southeast of the Austin metro/IH35 corridor.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20%  chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Highs in the mid to upper 90s with afternoon heat index values of 101 F.
Light southeasterly wind becoming s
outherly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear.
Lows in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

WEDNESDAY (02Jul)…. Mostly sunny. Some haze with Saharan dust.
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat
east and southeast of the Austin metro/IH35 corridor.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10%  chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Highs in the mid to upper 90s with afternoon heat index values of 102 F.
Light southeasterly wind becoming s
outherly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

THURSDAY (03Jul)…. Mostly sunny.
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat
east and southeast of the Austin metro/IH35 corridor.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10%  chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Highs in the mid to upper 90s with afternoon heat index values of 102 F.
Light southeasterly wind becoming s
outherly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY (04Jul) /Fourth of July/…. Mostly sunny.
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat
east and southeast of the Austin metro/IH35 corridor.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10%  chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts.
Highs in the upper 90s with afternoon heat index values of 103 F.
Light southeasterly wind becoming s
outherly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY (05Jul)…. Mostly sunny.
Highs around 100 with afternoon heat index values of 104 F.
S
outherly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY (06Jul)…. Mostly sunny.
Highs around 101 with afternoon heat index values of 105 F.
S
outherly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 07 July 2025 through Sunday / 13 July 2025
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 27 June 2025)
Valid Saturday / 12 July 2025 through Friday / 25 July 2025
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal

tk

All Winter Weather Threats Have Ended (1125am CT, We/17Jan2024 Update)

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update 14 – FINAL
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1125am CT – Wednsday / 17 January 2024


All NWS winter event warnings have expired as of 10am this morning.

This is my final statement on this event.

tk