Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Drier and More Stable Early Summer Weather Pattern Reestablishes Itself; Rain Chances May Increase Again Early Next Week (Th/13Jun2024)

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troy@troykimmelweather.com

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In times of severe and/or inclement weather, you can follow the latest area
watch, advisory and warning updates from our local NWS Austin-San Antonio
office through their WEBSITE.. or by reading the actual text products (always
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products may be outdated and/or expired.

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Elevated Heat Index Values …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A drier and more stable weather pattern will prevail overhead through the weekend into early next week as upper level high pressure strengthens.

(2) It’s too early to call specifics at this time, but in a low to medium confidence forecast, it looks like a slug of tropical moisture over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico may begin to edge west northwestward into Mexico mainly south of Brownsville by early into the middle part of next week. There are still many uncertainties with this system.. both in future track and how much it will develop so we’ll just need to watch closely. If this verifies, we could see some rain chances mainly south of Austin as early as late Tuesday into Wednesday. There are continuing signs that these rain chances will be continuing into the longer 8 to 14 day outlook period for our area of the state.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, 0.25 to 0.50 inch rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence into the weekend before a low to medium confidence forecast sets in by early to mid parts of next week.

Troy’s Weather Forecast
for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday/ 13  June 2024

TODAY (13Jun)…. Mostly sunny. High 96. Light east southeasterly wind.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 74. Light easterly wind.

FRIDAY (14Jun)…. Mostly sunny. High 97 with afternoon heat index values around 103. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 74. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY (15Jun)…. Mostly sunny. High 98 with afternoon heat index values around 104. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY (16Jun)…. Mostly sunny. High 98 with afternoon heat index values around 104. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY (17Jun)…. Mostly sunny. High 96 with afternoon heat index values around 104. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Light southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY (18Jun)…. Mostly sunny early then becoming partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance at any given location, will average less than 0.25 inch. High 94. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 19 June 2024 through Tuesday / 25 June 2024
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Th/13Jun)……………………………… 6:29 am / 8:33 pm
Tomorrow (Fr/14Jun)……………………….. 6:29 am / 8:33 pm

 

All Winter Weather Threats Have Ended (1125am CT, We/17Jan2024 Update)

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update 14 – FINAL
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1125am CT – Wednsday / 17 January 2024


All NWS winter event warnings have expired as of 10am this morning.

This is my final statement on this event.

tk