Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

It Feels Like Summertime But There is a Cold Front on the Way (Fr/17Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 17 September 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and stable weather pattern continues into the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will be warming back well above seasonal, perhaps record high, temperatures today into the weekend with afternoon heat index values back in the 100 to 104 F range.

(2) A few of the atmospheric forecast computer models are suggesting isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon but I expect them to remain generally well east through southeast and south of our local area and therefore, I am not including rain chances in my IH35 corridor forecast.

(3) A slightly more unstable air mass, with a more pronounced moist surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico and weak cold front moving into west Texas, will result in increased humidity by Monday and then the return to better rain chances by Tuesday.

(4) In a increasingly higher confidence forecast, the  south southeastward moving cold front will advance through the area late Tuesday and then move to near the Texas coast and south Texas thereafter. Rain chances will increase a bit as the front approaches and passes to our southeast; cooler temperatures will prevail for the latter part of next week as skies clear.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting rainfall amounts of less than 0.25″ inch.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence through Tuesday with medium to high confidence Wednesday through Thursday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 17 September 2021

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Light wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Light wind becoming north northeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light east northeasterly wind  becoming calm.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 95. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more south southeasterly late.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then partly cloudy. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes. A 40% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 69. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 8am. Mostly sunny and less humid. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 87. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 61. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 88. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Friday / 24 September 2021 through Thursday / 30 September 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation…  Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 September)…………………………………… 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (17 September)…………………………………….. 7:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 September)……………………………………….. 7:17 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 September)………………………………………… 7:32 pm

A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern for Now (Th/16Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 16 September 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and more stable weather pattern continues for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will be warming back well above seasonal, perhaps record high, temperatures by tomorrow into the weekend with afternoon heat index values back in the 100 to 105 F range.

(2) A slightly more unstable air mass, with a more pronounced moist surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico and weak cold front moving into west Texas, will result in the return to very slim rain chances by Sunday into Monday.

(3) In a lower confidence forecast, the weak southeastward moving cold front will slowly advance into the area as it becomes stationary Wednesday into Thursday. Rain chances will increase a bit as the front approaches and washes out overhead.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting rainfall amounts of less than 0.25″ inch.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence through Tuesday with low to medium confidence Wednesday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 16 September 2021

TODAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. High 93. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Light wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Light wind becoming northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light east northeasterly wind  becoming calm.

SUNDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 94. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.

MONDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 95. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly clear. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then partly cloudy. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 22 September 2021 through Tuesday / 28 September 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation…  Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 September)…………………………………… 7:16 am
Sunset this evening (16 September)…………………………………….. 7:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 September)……………………………………….. 7:17 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 September)………………………………………… 7:35 pm