Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Lots of Sunshine Over the Next Two Days with Cooler Temperatures Late Week into the Weekend; Rain Chances Return by Late Saturday into Sunday with a Passing Disturbance and a Backdoor Cold Front Followed by Partial Clearing Monday into Wednesday; Clouds and Rain Chances Return by Wednesday Night (Thursday / 12 November 2026)

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for metro Austin at THIS LINK.

Remember, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility
to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx .
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so it
can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually)
of all NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..  Always check
the date and time of issuance of these NWS text products since, in periods of  tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Th/12Nov..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Fr/13Nov..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Sa/14Nov..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Su/15Nov..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Marginal Threat of Excessive Rainfall

Mo/16Nov..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Tu/17Nov..
No Weather Hazards Expected

We/18Nov..
No Weather Hazards Expected

—

7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
0.75 inch of rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the
7 day forecast period ending on Wednesday.

—

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

Skies have mostly cleared over our area and this will continue into the first half
of our weekend. Temperatures will fall a few degrees over the next day or two
in the wake of an weak cold front last night.

Another approaching Pacific upper air low pressure disturbance and an associated
backdoor cold front (from the northeast) will result in increased clouds and rain
chances by Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Another cold front will filter south
southwestward over the area late Sunday and early Monday in the wake of the
disturbance.

Once the cold front passes southwest of the area and weakens, clouds will once
again partially break for Monday into Wednesday before clouds and some rain
chances return to our forecast by Wednesday night as yet another Pacific upper
level low pressure disturbance approaches from the west.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence now through Sunday night.
– A high forecast confidence for Monday through Wednesday.

—

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor

THURSDAY (12Nov)….
Mostly clear.
Afternoon highs in the mid 70s.
Overnight low around 50.
Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph during the day then becoming light at night.

FRIDAY (13Nov)….
Mostly clear.
Afternoon high in the mid 70s.
Overnight low in the low 50s.
Light southwesterly wind becoming calm at night.

SATURDAY (14Nov)….
Mostly clear early then increasing clouds by afternoon then cloudy at night.
Scattered rain and rain showers developing after 2pm and becoming more numerous at night.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance in the afternoon and 50% at night, will average 0.25 to 0.35 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid 70s.
Overnight low in the mid 50s.
Light east southeasterly wind becoming east southeasterly 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY (15Nov)….
Mostly cloudy as a weak cold front passes from the northeast.
Scattered rain and rain showers.
Rain, where it occurs given a 50% chance in the afternoon and 30% at night, will average 0.30 to 0.45 inch.
Afternoon high around 70.
Overnight low in the mid 50s.
East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more east northeasterly in the afternoon and night.

MONDAY (16Nov)….
Decreasing clouds becoming partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low 60s.
Overnight low around 50.
Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northeasterly at night.

TUESDAY (17Nov)….
Mostly clear.
Afternoon high in the low 60s.
Overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50.
Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light easterly at night.

WEDNESDAY (18Nov)….
Partly cloudy during the day then becoming mostly cloudy at night.
Widely scattered rain showers at night.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts.
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Overnight low in the mid 50s.
Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 19 November 2026 through Wednesday / 25 November 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of  Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Well Above Normal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 06 November 2026)
Valid Saturday / 21 November 2026 through Friday / 04 December 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Below Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Above Normal

 

All Winter Weather Threats Have Ended (1125am CT, We/17Jan2024 Update)

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update 14 – FINAL
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1125am CT – Wednsday / 17 January 2024


All NWS winter event warnings have expired as of 10am this morning.

This is my final statement on this event.

tk