Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

NWS Issued Winter Weather Advisory Continues Until 6am Friday with Minimal Impacts Expected (Th/20Jan2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 20 January 2022
       

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… NWS/Austin-San Antonio Issued Winter Weather Advisory In Effect Until 6am Friday…
… Windy Today into Tonight as Colder Air Settles into the Area …
… Wind Chills in the Teens and 20s Today into Tonight …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As much colder air moves southward over the area, an approaching upper level low pressure area from the west is increasingly creating atmospheric lift and will result in slim precipitation chances in an overrunning pattern today into early tonight. I am thinking that the best precipitation chances will be south of our local area. Surface temperatures, much colder in the wake the front, are still forecast be in the 30s today during the time period that precipitation will most likely occur. In addition, afternoon highs yesterday above 80 means the ground will still be quite warm. Even if we get sleet or snow with the rain as this system passes today into early tonight, I think there will be minimal impacts.

(2) In the wake of the disturbance, clouds will decrease after midnight tonight into tomorrow morning with a mostly clear sky through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will continue to be well below seasonal averages into the weekend with a light to moderate freeze, especially in outlying and low lying areas tonight into tomorrow morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning.

(3) Temperatures will warm a bit late in the weekend into early next week as yet another upper level low pressure moves across the area with increased clouds and some rain chances again late Sunday into Monday.

(4) Another cold front moves through the area on Tuesday afternoon and will result in another cool down for middle into later part of next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting rainfall of less than 0.25 inch for our area over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Lower confidence through tonight with precipitation types and precipitation likelihood the main question. A higher confidence forecast returns for tonight and Friday into early into mid parts of next week.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 20 January 2022

TODAY…. Cloudy, windy and unseasonably cold with wind chills remaining in the teens and 20s all day. A few sprinkles or rain showers mixed with snow and sleet developing in the late morning hours. Rainfall amounts, given a 30%chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. No sleet/snow accumulations. High 35. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.  

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with a few patches of sleet or snow before 8pm. Slowly decreasing clouds after midnight. Rainfall amounts, given a 20%chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. No sleet/snow accumulations. Temperatures falling below freezing by 8pm with an overnight low of 26. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph slowly decreasing late.

FRIDAY…. A few clouds in the morning then becoming mostly sunny and unseasonably cold. High 47. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 26. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny and continued unseasonably cold. High 53. Calm wind becoming northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 34. Light east northeasterly wind becoming calm.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 58. Calm wind becoming light southeasterly.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles developing. Rainfall amounts, given a 20%chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 40. Light south southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall amounts, given a 40%chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.20 inch or less. High 58. Light wind becoming southwesterly in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers ending by midnight. Rainfall amounts, given a 30%chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch or less. Low 41. Light southwesterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. Turning windy and cooler as a cold front passes in the afternoon. High 61. Southwesterly wind shifting north northeasterly 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and colder. Low 31. Northerly wind decreasing to 5 to 12 mph late.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 53. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Thursday / 27 January 2022 through Wednesday / 02 February 2022
Temperatures… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 January)……………………………………. 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (20 January)……………………………………… 5:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 January)………………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 January)…………………………………………. 5:58 pm

A Strong Cold Front Due Tonight.. Much Colder Temperatures with Some Precipitation Expected for Tomorrow into Tomorrow Evening (We/19Jan2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 19 January 2022
       
Will Be Updated Shortly…
  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Threats Expected Today …
… Windy Tonight (Gusts to 30 to 40 mph) as Cold Front Moves Through the Area …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) After morning low clouds, we’ll see afternoon sunshine today with temperatures well above seasonal averages.

(2) A strong cold frontal passage is expected by early tonight. As much colder air moves southward over the area, an approaching upper level low pressure area from the west will create atmospheric lift and will result in increasing cloudiness and perhaps even precipitation chances in a brief overrunning pattern tomorrow. I am thinking that locally the atmosphere will be a little short on moisture with this event and the best precipitation chances will be south and southeast of our local area. Surface temperatures, although much colder in the wake the front, are still forecast be above freezing during the time period that precipitation will most likely occur. In addition, afternoon highs today in the 70s will mean the ground will still be quite warm tomorrow. Even if we get a little sleet or a few snow flakes as this system passes, I just don’t think there will be much of an impact.

3) In the wake of the disturbance, skies will clear again late tomorrow night and Friday and will continue that way through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will continue to be well below seasonal averages through the weekend and into next week with a light to moderate freeze, especially in outlying and low lying areas Thursday night into Friday.

(4) Temperatures will warm a bit during the weekend into early next week before another cold front moves through the area during the afternoon hours on Tuesday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting rainfall of less than 0.25 inch for our area over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High confidence through today then lower confidence, with any precipitation, tomorrow into tomorrow night. A high confidence forecast returns for Friday into early next week.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 19 January 2022

TODAY…. Morning low clouds. Becoming mostly sunny and unseasonably warm this afternoon. High 78. Light southerly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Increasing cloudiness. Turning windy and much colder as a cold front passes in the early evening hours. Low 31. South southwesterly wind shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 40 mph.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy, breezy and unseasonably cold with wind chills remaining in the 20s all day. A few sprinkles or rain showers developing. A few snow flakes and sleet will mix with the light rain. Rainfall amounts, given a 30%chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. No sleet/snow accumulations. High 36. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.  

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a few snow showers before 9pm. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Rainfall amounts, given a 20%chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. No snow accumulations. Temperatures falling below freezing by 9pm with an overnight low of 26. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph slowly decreasing late.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably cold. High 47. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 26. Light northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny and continued unseasonably cold. High 52. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 32. Light northeasterly wind.  

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 55. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 38. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 60. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 41. Light southwesterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. Turning windy and cooler as a cold front passes. High 56. Light wind shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph and gusty.  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 26 January 2022 through Tuesday / 01 February 2022
Temperatures… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 January)……………………………………. 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (19 January)……………………………………… 5:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 January)………………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 January)…………………………………………. 5:57 pm