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at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually)
of all NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings.. Always check
the date and time of issuance of these NWS text products since, in periods of tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
—-
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
We/30Sep..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Marginal” to “Slight” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 1,2 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Th/01Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Moderate” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 3 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Some Flood Issues Developing
Fr/02Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Marginal” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 1 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Some Flood Issues Continuing
Sa/03Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/04Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Mo/05Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Tu/06Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
4 to 5 inch rainfall amounts, on average, with some isolated higher totals
are forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast period
ending on Tuesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
By tonight, an approaching upper level low pressure disturbance will be moving
eastward from the west coast into the southern Rockies approaching Texas from the
west. This will result in a major shift in our weather pattern finally putting at least a
temporary end to the dry weather pattern we’ve seen over the last month or two.
A mass of mid and upper level Pacific moisture from a dissipating tropical cyclone from
the Pacific Ocean is moving northeastward into this system. Keep in mind, however, that
the two sets of Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico is scouring out most of the low level
moisture and at least part of the mid level moisture as it crosses Mexico. At the same time,
abundant amounts of atmospheric moisture, at all levels, from the Gulf is moving north
northwestward into Texas as the atmosphere senses the approach of the main upper level
low pressure disturbance.
All of this will combine with the approaching upper level low pressure disturbance as
well as the mid and upper moisture and remnants of the tropical cyclone promoting dynamic
and abundant atmospheric lift as it approaches Texas from the west. This will result in
widespread rain shower and thunderstorm activity by later tonight into tomorrow. By
tomorrow night into early Friday, a slow moving cold front will come into play to enhance
periods of heavier rain developing area wide. Model and manual forecast data suggests
that the front will move through the IH35 corridor by sunrise Friday with some precipitation
lingering behind the front Friday night through the weekend as cooler air arrives. This
sort of weather pattern is well known for it’s ability to produce excessive rainfall amounts
so periods of heavier rain and even some flooding are likely locally mid into late week so
let’s increase our flood awareness over the coming days.
Guidance suggests a second cold front may move in from the northeast by Monday into
Tuesday as cooler and drier air arrives in our area with sunshine returning and continuing
through much of next week.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period (except
regarding exact rainfall timing and exact rainfall amounts at any given location locally where
my forecast confidence right now is medium)
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
WEDNESDAY (30Sep)….
… FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect after 7pm …
Mostly cloudy early then partly cloudy. Becoming mostly cloudy again after 6pm.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat 2pm to 6pm.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after 6pm.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.15 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 90s. (Maximum heat index 105F, Maximum WBGT 86F)
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph daytime then south southeasterly 8 to 15 at night with a few higher gusts.
THURSDAY (01Oct)….
… FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect …
Cloudy.
Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Periods of heavy rain and flooding possible.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 100% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1 inches.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 100% chance of rain at any given location, will average 2 inches.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight low in the low to mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
FRIDAY (02Oct)….
… FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect until 7pm …
Mostly cloudy as a cold front passes by sunrise.
Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Some heavy rainfall possible with some flooding issues.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 90% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.60 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
East southerly wind shifting east northeasterly 5 to 10 mph by sunrise.
SATURDAY (03Sep)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.15 inch.
Afternoon high around 80.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY (04Oct)….
Mostly cloudy through midday then partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY (05Oct)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 5pm.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts.
Afternoon high around 80.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 60s.
East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more northerly after sunset.
TUESDAY (06Oct)….
Partly cloudy early then most sunny and less humid.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Overnight low in the mid 60s.
North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 07 October 2026 through Tuesday / 13 October 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Near Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 25 September 2026)
Valid Saturday / 10 October 2026 through Friday / 23 October 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near Normal