Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Stable Weather Pattern Continues Through the Next Seven Days with Periods of Dangerous Afternoon Heat Stress Expected; With Medium Forecast Confidence, No Rainfall Locally as a Weakening Gulf Tropical System Moves Westward into the Upper Texas Coast and Washes Out (Tuesday/21July2026)

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.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually)
of all NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..  Always check
the date and time of issuance of these NWS text products since, in periods of  tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Tu/21Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

We/22Jul..
Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Th/23Jul..
Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Fr/24Jul..
Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Sa/25Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Su/26Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Mo/27Jul..
Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
little if any rainfall is currently forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over
the 7 day forecast period ending on Monday.

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

As upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues to
hold over the area, I expect the dry weather pattern to continue for most areas
through the seven day forecast period.

During this period, afternoon into evening temperatures combined with
atmospheric moisture will result with elevated to dangerous heat index and
wet bulb globe temperature values. Please remember to remain hydrated and to
“take it easy” if you’re outdoors in the afternoon and evening hours.

Let’s talk a moment about the tropical cyclone over the northeastern Gulf. For mid
into late week, the upper level high area pressure will continue to hold forth over
north Texas and will act to create a rather hostile atmospheric environment as
the tropical system is projected to weaken and move westward along or just
onshore of the Louisiana coast. NWS/National Hurricane Center guidance suggests
the system will weaken further and maybe even dissipate as it moves westward
into Texas and south of the IH10 corridor between Houston and San Antonio by
midday Saturday. With medium forecast confidence, we will likely see a slight
increase in cloud cover Friday into Saturday but, at this point, I do not expect any
precipitation locally with most precipitation along or south of the IH10 corridor.
I’ll continue to watch this carefully in case things do change. Stay tuned.

Once the dying tropical system passes to the south and southwest, the upper
level high pressure area will once again build overhead with a dry summer
weather pattern continuing into
the weekend.

LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence through Friday morning.
– A medium forecast confidence for Friday afternoon through Saturday night.
– A very high forecast confidence for Sunday through Monday.

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor

TUESDAY (21Jul)….
Sunshine.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to near 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 103 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT….
Clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.

WEDNESDAY (22Jul)….
Sunshine.
Afternoon high around 102.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
Light wind becoming east northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Clear.
Overnight low around 80.
Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

THURSDAY (23Jul)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
Light wind becoming easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear becoming partly cloudy after midnight.
Overnight low around 80.
Light easterly wind becoming calm.

FRIDAY (24Jul)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Light northeasterly wind.

FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Overnight low around 80.
Light north northeasterly wind becoming calm.

SATURDAY (25Jul)…
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 105 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
Calm early then southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s to around 80.
Light south southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY (26Jul)….
Sunshine.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 105 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 86 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY (27Jul)…
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 28 July 2026 through Monday / 03 August 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/17Jul2026)
Valid Saturday / 01 August 2026 through Friday / 14 August 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal