ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update 2
Prepared by Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
330pm CT – Wednesday / 15 January 2025
… An Arctic Air Mass to Move Into Our Area with An Initial Cold Front Early Saturday …
… Much Colder Temperatures with Afternoon Highs in the 30s to Near 40 and Overnight
Lows in the Teens and 20s by Early Next Week …
… Models Are Now in the Low to Moderate Confidence Category Regarding Potential Frozen Precipitation (We’re Thinking Mainly Snow at this Point Given Expected Atmospheric Temp Profiles) Back In the Colder Air Mainly Late Monday Afternoon into Morning to Midday Hours Tuesday…
While we will see a warming trend later this week, surface forecast maps and model data continues to be consistent in bringing a series of cold fronts.. the first late Friday night then the stronger cold front across our IH35 corridor about sunrise on Saturday. Behind that front, a 1048 millibar (MB) surface high will build southward out of Canada into the central plains states. By Tuesday, a 1036MB surface high is forecast to be stretched from north Texas/Oklahoma into the lower/middle Mississippi Valley with some of the coldest air of this winter season into Texas
Overnight, ensemble model guidance has become a little more confident in seeing precipitation in the colder air as an upper level low pressure disturbance moves across the area creating atmospheric lift with moisture being introduced from the south. This would primarily be in the late afternoon Monday through Monday night into the Tuesday morning time period. The forecast atmospheric profile is leaning toward this primarily being a light snow event, but that could change with time.
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio meteorologists remind us that the latest NOAA/NWS Winter Storm Severity Index is currently showing us in a 10 to 30% probability area of significant winter weather impacts for the period from Monday morning into Tuesday morning…
For planning purposes, here are the expected temperatures for the time periods over the
weekend into next week based on the latest guidance..
Discussion:
After an initial weaker cold front late Friday night, the stronger Arctic cold front passes around sunrise Saturday with additional cold air building into the area through the weekend into the first two days of next week with the much colder than average temps lasting through most of next week. An upper level disturbance will cross the area Monday into Tuesday with wintry precipitation possible. Temperatures are expected to stay well below seasonal averages for much of next week.
Saturday (18Jan)..
Mostly clear.
Highs in the 50s early morning with temperatures falling to the upper 40s to near 50 in the afternoon.
Low Saturday night/early Sunday morning 28 F.
Wind chill values in the upper 10s to 20s by Saturday night late.
Sunday (19Jan)..
Mostly clear.
Morning low.. 28 F early morning
Afternoon high… 41 F.
Wind chills in the 20s and 30s.
Monday / MLK Day (20Jan)…
Mostly clear early then increasing clouds turning partly to mostly cloudy in
the afternoon into Monday night with scattered snow showers developing (30% Probability).
Little or no accumulation anticipated.
Morning low.. 21 F (outlying low lying areas in the teens)
Afternoon high.. 37 F
Wind chill readings as low as 10 F in the morning.
Tuesday (21Jan)…
Scattered snow showers through midday (30% Probability). Mostly cloudy.
Morning low 20 F (outlying low lying areas in the teens)
Afternoon high.. 33 F
Wind Chill readings as low as 10 F.
Wednesday (22Jan)…
Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
Morning low 20 F (outlying low lying areas in the teens)
Afternoon high..38 F
Remember that we will be getting new shorter range and higher resolution model data coming in and that will allow us to gain much more insight and confidence in the forecast over the next few days. Stay tuned here at troykimmelweather.com for the latest statements and forecast updates.
Remember, be a good critical thinker and utilize have your trusted weather sources (folks you KNOW and TRUST) including our colleagues at our local NWS/Austin-San Antonio office (weather.gov/ewx). Our local Austin area media folks, that we all know, are reliable sources as well.
On the other hand, stay away from unknown social media folks that are more interested
in passing along extreme/”gloom and doom” model solutions and getting social media clicks.
We’re four to five days out with this potential winter weather event.. please remember, things can and will likely change. I will continue to monitor and, of course, let you know as things do become better defined… tk
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