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—-
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Tu/29Sep..
Slightly Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/30Sep..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Slight” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 2 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Th/01Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Moderate” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 3 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Some Flooding Developing
Fr/02Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Slight” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 2 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Some Flood Issues Continuing
Sa/03Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/04Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Mo/05Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
4 to 6 inch rainfall amounts, on average, with some isolated higher totals
are forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast period
ending on Monday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
A mostly dry and stable late summer/early fall weather pattern continues, with above
average temperatures, over our area today. As atmospheric moisture off the Gulf
increases, some isolated rain showers are possible today, mainly southeast of the
Austin/IH35 corridor area, but I feel the chance is too slim to mention in my forecast.
Slightly elevated heat stress values and high fire danger will continue today.
By tonight, an approaching upper level low pressure disturbance will be moving
eastward from the west coast into the southern Rockies approaching Texas from the
west. This will result in a major shift in our weather pattern finally putting at least a
temporary end to the dry weather pattern we’ve seen over the last month or two.
A mass of mid and upper level Pacific moisture from a land falling tropical cyclone from
the Pacific Ocean and over Baja Peninsula will be moving northeastward into this system.
Keep in mind, however, that the two sets of Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico will scour
out most of the low level moisture and at least part of the mid level moisture as it crosses
the country. At the same time, abundant amounts of atmospheric moisture, at all levels,
from the Gulf will be moving north northwestward into Texas. All of this will combine with
the approaching upper level low pressure disturbance as well as the mid and upper
moisture and remnants of the tropical cyclone promoting abundant atmospheric lift as
it approaches Texas from the west. This will result in widespread rain shower and
thunderstorm activity by later today and tonight into tomorrow. By tomorrow night
and Thursday into early Friday, a slow moving cold front will come into play to enhance
periods of heavier rain developing area wide. Model and manual forecast data suggests
that the front will move through the IH35 corridor by sunrise Friday with some precipitation
lingering behind the front Friday night through the weekend as cooler air arrives. This
sort of weather pattern is well known for it’s ability to produce excessive rainfall amounts
so periods of heavier rain and even some flooding are likely locally mid into late week so
let’s increase our flood awareness over the coming days.
Guidance suggests a second cold front may move in from the northeast by late on Monday.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence through tomorrow
– A medium to high forecast confidence for tomorrow night through Sunday (mainly regarding rainfall timing and amounts at any given location locally)
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
TUESDAY (29Sep)….
Partly cloudy during the day then mostly cloudy at night.
Widely scattered rain showers late night.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 102F/max afternoon WBGT 86F).
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY (30Sep)….
Mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers in the morning, then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat by afternoon and evening into night time.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.15 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.75 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts during the day them south southeasterly at night.
THURSDAY (01Oct)….
Cloudy.
Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Periods of heavy rain and flooding possible.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 90% chance of rain at any given location, will average 2.00 inches.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 90% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1 to 2 inches.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight low around 70.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY (02Oct)….
Mostly cloudy as a cold front passes by sunrise.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Some heavy rainfall possible with some flooding issues.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1.50 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
East southerly wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY (03Sep)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph during the day then east northeasterly at night.
SUNDAY (04Oct)….
Mostly cloudy through midday then partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY (05Oct)….
Partly to mostly cloudy with a cold front passing around 8pm.
Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Afternoon high around 80.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 60s.
East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more northeasterly after 8pm.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 06 October 2026 through Monday / 12 October 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Below Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slight Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 25 September 2026)
Valid Saturday / 10 October 2026 through Friday / 23 October 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near Normal