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the date and time of issuance of these NWS text products since, in periods of tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Mo/28Sep..
Slightly Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/29Sep..
Slightly Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/30Sep..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Slight” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 2 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Th/01Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Moderate” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 3 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Some Flooding Developing
Fr/02Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
“Slight” Risk of Excessive Rainfall (NWS WPC Category 2 of 4 – Excessive Rainfall)
Some Flood Issues Continuing
Sa/03Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/04Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
4 to 6 inch rainfall amounts, on average, with some isolated higher totals
are forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast period
ending on Sunday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
Even with isolated thunderstorms last night, a mostly dry and stable late summer
weather pattern continues over the area as we start the new week. Slightly elevated
heat stress values and high fire danger will continue through tomorrow.
By late tomorrow, an approaching upper level low pressure disturbance will be moving
eastward from the west coast into the southern Rockies. This will result in a major
shift in our weather pattern finally putting an end to the dry weather pattern we’ve
seen over the last month or two. A mass of mid and upper level Pacific moisture (please
note that all low level and some mid level moisture from system will be scoured out
by the Sierra Madres in Mexico) from a land falling tropical cyclone into Baja Peninsula
will be moving northeastward into this system. At the same time, abundant amounts of
atmospheric moisture, at all levels, from the Gulf will be moving north northwestward
into Texas. All of this combined with the approaching upper level low pressure disturbance as well as the mid and upper remnants of the tropical cyclone promoting abundant atmospheric lift as it approaches Texas from the west and will result in widespread rain shower and thunderstorm activity by tomorrow night into Wednesday. By Wednesday night and Thursday into early Friday, a slow moving cold front will come into play to enhance periods of heavier rain developing area wide. Model and manual forecast data suggests that the front will move through the IH35 corridor by sunrise Friday with some precipitation lingering behind the front Friday night through the weekend as cooler air arrives. This sort of early fall weather pattern is well know for it’s ability to produce excessive rainfall amounts so periods of heavier rain and even some flooding are likely mid into late week so let’s increase our flood awareness over the coming days.
Guidance suggests a second cold front may pass by next Monday although that is just
beyond this seven day forecast period.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence through tomorrow
– A medium to high forecast confidence for tomorrow night through Sunday (mainly regarding rainfall timing and amounts at any given location locally)
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
MONDAY (28Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day then partly cloudy at night.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100 (with max afternoon HI 104F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph at night.
TUESDAY (29Sep)….
Partly cloudy during the day then mostly cloudy at night.
Widely scattered rain showers late night.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 102F/max afternoon WBGT 86F).
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY (30Sep)….
Mostly cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain by evening.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1.00 inch.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 90s.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts during the day them south southeasterly at night.
THURSDAY (01Oct)….
Cloudy.
Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Periods of heavy rain and flooding possible.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 90% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1 to 2 inches.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1 to 2 inches.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
Overnight low around 70.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY (02Oct)….
Mostly cloudy as a cold front passes by sunrise.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Some heavy rainfall possible.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1.00 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
East southerly wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY (03Sep)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Afternoon high around 80.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph during the day then east northeasterly at night.
SUNDAY (04Oct)….
Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Daytime rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Nighttime rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.05 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 60s.
East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 05 October 2026 through Sunday / 11 October 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Below Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 25 September 2026)
Valid Saturday / 10 October 2026 through Friday / 23 October 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near Normal