Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Mostly Dry Weather Pattern Through Mid Week with Increased Clouds and Some Rain Chances By Wednesday; A Cold Front Looks to Arrive by the End of Week with Slightly Better Rain Chances Before Clearing Skies and Cooler Temperatures by the Weekend (Monday / 12 October 2026)

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Mo/12Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Tu/13Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

We/14Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Th/15Oct..
Lightning Hazard with Any Thunderstorms for the Nighttime Hours

Fr/16Oct..
Lightning Hazard with Any Thunderstorms Mainly Before 7am

Sa/17Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Su/18Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

—

7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
0.25 inch or less of rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the
7 day forecast period ending on Sunday.

—

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

As we start the new week, southerly surface winds have resulted in increased low level
moisture and higher humidity. While I am maintaining a dry forecast over the next few days, some the computer models suggest a few rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours over the next few days but based on what I am seeing, I think that most of the activity will stay to our south and southeast in deep south Texas and the Texas coastal plains. As a result, I will not include any rain chances for our IH35 corridor. I will continue to watch for this possibility today and tomorrow as well as Wednesday.

A more unsettled weather pattern still looks set up beginning mid week as we see a more
distinct weather pattern change for Texas that will continue into Friday as a broad upper
level low pressure trough passes west to east into the central plains states. We will see better rain and thunderstorm chances beginning late Thursday into the predawn hours Friday as the upper level trough helps to support a relatively strong cold front as it dives southeastward through Texas. Following the cold frontal passage, surface high pressure characterized by drier and cooler conditions will be in place by late Friday through the weekend.

Beyond my seven day forecast, preliminary guidance suggests rain chances may return to
our forecast by the mid part of next week.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence now through Wednesday night
– A high forecast confidence Thursday through the weekend

—

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor

MONDAY (12Oct)….
Mostly clear in the morning then partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 90s (Maximum afternoon HI 103 F/WBGT 87 F).
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

TUESDAY (13Oct)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s (Maximum afternoon HI 106 F/WBGT 88 F).
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY (14Oct)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s (Maximum afternoon HI 103 F/WBGT 87 F).
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY (15Oct)….
Partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers after 3pm.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after 9pm with an associated lightning threat.
A cold front passes after midnight.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of daytime rain, will average trace amounts.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of nighttime rain, will average 0.20 inch or less.
Afternoon high in low 90s.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts shifting north northeasterly after midnight.

FRIDAY (16Oct)….
Partly cloudy. Breezy and cooler.
Widely scattered rain showers before 10am.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of morning rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 80s.
Overnight low in the upper 50s.
North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

SATURDAY (17Oct)….
Mostly clear and breezy.
Afternoon high in the mid 70s.
Overnight low in the mid 50s.
North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph during the day then 5 to 10 mph at night.

SUNDAY (18Oct)….
Mostly clear.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight low in the mid 50s.
Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph early then more easterly 4 to 8 mph at night.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 19 October 2026 through Sunday / 25 October 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of  Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 09 October 2026)
Valid Saturday / 24 October 2026 through Friday / 06 November 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal