Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 03 November 2022
Will Not Be Updated Today…
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… No Hazards Expected …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) We find ourselves in a rather benign fall weather pattern through today with afternoon high temperatures warming back to above seasonal averages. Patchy morning low clouds and fog will be present in some areas.
(2) Our next weather system will be a strong upper level low pressure disturbance and an associated surface cold front is forecast to approach and then move across Texas beginning Friday and then overhead of the IH35 corridor into Friday night. Clouds and rain and thunderstorm chances show up beginning on Friday then peaking Friday night and ending by midnight tomorrow night. Some stronger thunderstorms with strong thunderstorm wind, larger hail and even an isolated tornado being possible.
(3) In the wake of the cold front late tomorrow night, a cooler, drier and more stable air mass will take over with abundant sunshine and less humid conditions Saturday.
(4) South southeasterly winds return with low level moisture increasing late Saturday night into Monday and Tuesday of next week. Late night and early morning low clouds are expected with afternoon high temperatures warming to well above seasonal averages.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, 0.50 inch rainfall totals over the next seven day forecast period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through predawn Saturday then back to a very high confidence forecast Saturday night into the first half of next week.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 03 November 2022
TODAY…. Morning low clouds with a few sprinkles. Becoming partly cloudy by midday into the afternoon. Given a less than 20%chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Unseasonably warm. High 84. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers late. Given a 20%chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.05 inch. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy and unseasonably warm. A few rain showers in the morning then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat especially by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms may be severe with large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind and even an isolated tornado especially northeast of Austin beginning mid afternoon. Rainfall, given a 50%chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler as a cold front passes in the early evening hours. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning. Thunderstorms may be severe with large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind and even an isolated tornado especially northeast of Austin before 8pm. Rainfall, given a 50%chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Low 52. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph becoming more north northwesterly by midnight.
SATURDAY…. A few clouds around sunrise otherwise mostly sunny and less humid. High 72. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT….Clear. Low 50. Light northerly wind becoming calm.
SUNDAY….Sunshine and more humid. High 79. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds late. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. Light southeasterly wind.
TUESDAY /ELECTION DAY/…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. Light southeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 10 November through Wednesday / 16 November 2022
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (03Nov)………………………………………… 7:47 am
Sunset this evening (03Nov)………………………………………….. 6:42 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (04Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:48 am
Sunset tomorrow (04Nov)……………………………………………… 6:41 pm