Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 11 November 2022
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Lightning with Any Thunderstorms Today …
… A Chance of Hail in Stronger Storms Today in the Wake of the Frontal Passage …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) A passing upper air low pressure area and stronger surface cold front will make their way over the IH35 corridor this morning. We’ll see rain chances beginning as the front passes and will continue through the day until early tonight night with rain, rain showers and even a few thunderstorms in the forecast. Rain chances should drop from the forecast and clouds will break after midnight tonight.
(2) As the much cooler air continues to move in, we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine for our weekend. Overnight lows are now likely to fall into the 30s for most areas away from urban IH35 corridor area Saturday night.. this will be the first widespread overnight lows in the 30s this fall season.
(3) By late Sunday into late Monday, as an upper air low pressure area passes overhead, it looks like the much cooler surface air will be overrun by moisture with increased clouds and rain chances as well as chilly below average temperatures.
(4) Skies will clear again as a secondary surge of polar air comes southward through the plains states for Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Temperatures will continue well below seasonal averages with overnight lows in the 30s area wide.
(5) Although just beyond the seven day forecast period, longer range guidance suggests that another upper air low pressure disturbance and front will move through the area with possible rain chances next Friday into the weekend.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, 0.25 to 0.50 inch rainfall totals over the next seven day forecast period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the next seven days.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 11 November 2022
TODAY /VETERANS DAY/…. Cloudy. As a cold front passes, turning breezy and cooler.. Numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms developing, with an associated lightning threat, especially after the cold front passes. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average .25 to .50 inch. Temperatures falling to 53 in the afternoon. North northwesterly wind 12 to 22 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy and much colder. Isolated rain showers before 8pm. Clouds decreasing after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 39. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.
SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy before 9am then mostly sunny. Unseasonably cool. High 58. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts before midnight.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 36 to 39 in outlying low lying areas to 41 in more urban areas. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably cool. High 59. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly in the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles developing after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 46. Light easterly wind.
MONDAY…. Cloudy with a scattered light rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than .05 inch. High 60. East southeasterly wind increasing to 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a few light sprinkles before midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average will average trace amounts. Low 42. Light easterly wind becoming more northerly late.
TUESDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming partly cloudy, breezy and cooler. High 55. High 55. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 36. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 56. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 39. Light east northeasterly wind.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy by afternoon. High 58. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 18 November through Thursday / 24 November 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11Nov)………………………………………… 6:53 am
Sunset this evening (11Nov)………………………………………….. 5:36 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (12Nov)…………………………………………….. 6:54 am
Sunset tomorrow (12Nov)……………………………………………… 5:36 pm