Rain Chances Return with the Possibility of Heavier Rain (Th/30Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 30 September 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Any Thunderstorms Will Be Accompanied by Lightning Threat …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As a slow moving upper air disturbance continues to approach from the west, clouds and low level humidity will combine with atmospheric instability to increase the likelihood of rain showers and thunderstorms continuing through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. It appears that periods of heavier rain are possible particularly tomorrow into Saturday.

(2) Following a cold frontal passage by midday Sunday, a drier, slightly cooler and more stable weather pattern will prevail as surface high pressure builds in the the north for much of next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting 1.00 to 3.00 inches of rainfall.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High confidence through Monday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 30 September 2021

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat by afternoon. Given a 30%chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 91. Light wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Becoming cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly after midnight. Given a 30% chance of rain early then increasing to 50% after midnight, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch. Low 71. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light late.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy. Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 70% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch. High 84. Light wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy. Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 70% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch. Low 70. Light southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy. Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 80% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch. High 84. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain early decreasing to 30% after midnight, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a weak cold front passes by midday. Given a 20% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northwesterly by midday.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 85. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 62. Light north northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Light east northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 63. Light wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Light south southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 64. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Light south southeasterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Thursday / 07 October 2021 through Wednesday / 13 October 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation…  Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (30 September)…………………………………… 7:23 am
Sunset this evening (30 September)…………………………………….. 7:18 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (01 October)……………………………………………. 7:24 am
Sunset tomorrow (01 October)…………………………………………….. 7:17 pm

A Break in the Weather Today.. But Rain Chances WILL Return!! (We/29Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 29 September 2021

Not Available Today…
  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Any Thunderstorms Will Be Accompanied by Lightning Threat …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As a slow moving upper air disturbance continues to approach from the west, clouds and low level humidity has increased with the likelihood of rain showers and thunderstorms continuing through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. It appears that periods of heavier rain are possible particularly tomorrow into Saturday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting 1.00 to 3.00 inches of rainfall.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High confidence through Monday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 29 September 2021

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 90. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60%chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50 inch. High 88. Light wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy. Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 70% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy. Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 80% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch. High 84. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy. Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 70% chance of rain before 9pm then 50% the remainder of the night, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch. Low 70. Light southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy. Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 80% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 to 0.75 inch. High 84. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a weak cold front passes late in the afternoon. Given a 30% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northwesterly late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 85. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 63. Light north northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 85. Light east northeasterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 06 October 2021 through Tuesday / 12 October 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation…  Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (29 September)…………………………………… 7:23 am
Sunset this evening (29 September)…………………………………….. 7:18 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (30 September)……………………………………….. 7:24 am
Sunset tomorrow (30 September)………………………………………… 7:17 pm