Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 28 November 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Following weak/diffuse cold frontal passage about sunset last night, a sunny day is ahead for south central Texas as the weak front to our south washes out and a light southerly surface wind returns.

(2) Enough moisture will return for low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle to develop in the overnight hours tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow.

(3) Clouds will break quickly tomorrow with sunshine and a south southwesterly surface wind along with unseasonably warm temperatures.

(4) A strong cold front will swiftly move south southeastward through the area before midnight Tuesday night but limited moisture and instability will mean that the wind shift to the north will be about the only sensible effect as the front passes.

(5) Much cooler surface high pressure will settle into Texas Wednesday thruogh Thursday before the high pressure area moves eastward and a southerly surface wind returns late Thursday into Thursday night.

(6) Clouds and warmer temperatures will return Friday through our upcoming weekend. A few light rain showers and sprinkles may develop late Friday night through Saturday as moisture deepens. Another cold front will be moving into Texas and approaching our area by Sunday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, trace rainfall totals over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through Thursday with a medium confidence forecast Friday through the weekend.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 28 November 2022

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 71. Light wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early. Thickening low clouds by 11pm. Patchy fog and drizzle developing after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance, will average trace amounts. Low 57. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Patchy fog and drizzle early. Mostly cloudy early then becoming mostly sunny, breezy and unseasonably warm. Early morning rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. High 80. South southwesterly winds increasing 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear as a cold front passes by midnight. Turning cooler. Low 45. South southwesterly wind shifting northerly 8 to 18 mph and gusty.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine, windy and much cooler. High 55. Northerly winds 15 to 25 mph with a few gusts above 35 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 37. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts early with winds decreasing late.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 56. Light northeasterly wind becoming more east southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with thickening low clouds late. Low 47. Light southeasterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and a little warmer. High 68. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles possible after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance, will average trace amounts. Low 59. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance, will average trace amounts. High 72. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance, will average trace amounts. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 73. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 05 December through Sunday / 11 December 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28Nov)………………………………………… 7:08 am
Sunset this evening (28Nov)………………………………………….. 5:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (29Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:08 am
Sunset tomorrow (29Nov)……………………………………………… 5:30 pm

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 23 November 2022

Will Not Be Updated Today…

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Clouds and some periods of light rain will linger with unseasonably chilly temperatures today.

(2) An approaching low pressure area and associated cold front that is forecast to approach Texas from the west and northwest late tomorrow with the front crossing the IH35 corridor sometime in the evening hours. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front tonight through tomorrow. However, the associated upper level low will linger to our west tomorrow night into Friday and into Friday night before moving east of the area late Friday night. This means that the cooler air following the frontal passage will be “overridden” by moisture which keeps clouds and rain in the forecast tomorrow night into Friday with clouds breaking into the predawn hours Saturday with clearing skies thereafter.

(3) A developing area of surface low pressure over the central plains states will result in warming temperatures, even perhaps a little above average (for the first time since November 11th), with plenty of sunshine Saturday into early next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1.00 inch over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through tomorrow night dropping back to a high confidence forecast Friday and Friday night before increasing back to a high to very high confidence forecast for Saturday into the first few days of new week.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 23 November 2022

TODAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 60. Calm wind becoming light southeasterly.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers becoming more numerous after midnight. A few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after midnight. Patchy fog developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of evening rain and increasing to 60% after midnight at any given location, will average less than 0.25 inch or less. Low 55. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY)…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes by late afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 67. Light southeasterly wind shifting northerly by late in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and breezy with scattered rain showers. Thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat, possible before 9pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average an additional 0.25 inch. Low 49. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered rain showers and patchy rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 40% in the afternoon, will average less than 0.25 inch. High 56. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles tapering off after midnight as clouds decrease. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. Low 42. Northerly winds diminishing to 5 to 12 mph then becoming more west southwesterly toward daybreak.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 65. Westerly winds 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 45. Light west southwesterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. West southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 74. Light southerly wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and more humid. Low 58. Light southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 76. Southerly winds 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 30 November through Tuesday / 06 December 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23Nov)………………………………………… 7:03 am
Sunset this evening (23Nov)………………………………………….. 5:31 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:04 am
Sunset tomorrow (24Nov)……………………………………………… 5:31 pm