Sunshine Now.. Rain for Thanksgiving? (Mo/22Nov2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 22 November 2021
       
Not Available Today…
   
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Threats Expected …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As surface high pressure builds into the area from the north, we’re seeing abundant sunshine and cooler temperatures in the wake of the front that passed late Sunday afternoon.

(2) A strong upper level low pressure disturbance and associated surface cold front is anticipated by Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms possible as early as late Wednesday. Cooler air will once again spread southward through the area by midday into the afternoon Thursday with rain chances lingering back in the cooler air through Thanksgiving Day.

(3) Skies will clear or partially clear Friday through the upcoming weekend. Another upper air low pressure disturbance may pass overhead Saturday into Saturday night but I am not confident enough to include rain chances at this time.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain for our area over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence through Thursday.. medium to high confidence Thursday night through Sunday.

—-

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 22 November 2021

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 69. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 43. Northerly wind becoming light late.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 73. Light wind becoming southerly and increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy with a some patchy drizzle developing after midnight. Where rainfall occurs, given a 20% chance of rain, rainfall will average trace amounts. Low 55. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some patchy morning drizzle and fog otherwise mostly cloudy and becoming breezy. High 76. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk mainly after 10pm. Where rainfall occurs, given a 50% chance of rain, it will average 0.25 inch. Low 61. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light late.

THURSDAY /THANKSGIVING DAY/…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the morning hours. Where rainfall occurs, given a 60% chance of rain, it will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch. High 64. Westerly wind becoming northerly 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Breezy and cooler. Low 42. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 61. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more northeasterly in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 43. Light east northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 64. Light wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48. Light wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 68. Light wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 29 November 2021 through Sunday / 05 December 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average  
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 November)……………………………………. 7:03 am
Sunset this evening (22 November)……………………………………… 5:31 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23 November)………………………………………… 7:03 am
Sunset tomorrow (23 November)…………………………………………. 5:31 pm

Sunshine into the Weekend… Stormy Weather for Thanksgiving? (Fr/19Nov2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 19 November 2021
       

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Threats Expected …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) In the wake of the front late Wednesday night, our temperatures have cooled back to below seasonal averages. Abundant  sunshine will prevail today into the weekend.

(2) As surface high pressure moves east of the area and another surface low develops to our west, southerly winds will increase by later today into the weekend. This will occur ahead of our next cold front expected by late Sunday into Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the front early next week.

(3) Looking forward to Thanksgiving, a stronger cold front is anticipated by Thanksgiving Day with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms possible as early as late Wednesday afternoon. Cooler air will once again spread southward through the area by midday into the afternoon Thursday with rain chances lingering back in the cooler air even into Thursday night and Friday (which is just beyond our 7 day forecast period).

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain for our area over the next seven days (in the period of Wednesday to Thursday next week).

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Very high confidence through Tuesday.. medium to high confidence Wednesday into Thursday.

—-

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 19 November 2021

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 66. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more east southeasterly by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 46. Light wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny and warmer. High 74. Light wind early becoming south southwesterly and increasing to 8 to 18 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm late.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy with a cold front passing in the morning into midday hours. High 76. Light southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 51. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 69. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 43. Light wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. Southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy and breezy with widely scattered rain showers in the afternoon. Given a 20% chance of rain, rainfall will average 0.10 inch or less. High 76. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Given a 40% chance of rain, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY /THANKSGIVING DAY/…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the midday to afternoon hours. Given a 60% chance of rain, rainfall will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch. High 70. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Friday / 26 November 2021 through Thursday / 02 December 2021…
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 November)……………………………………. 7:00 am
Sunset this evening (19 November)……………………………………… 5:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 November)………………………………………… 7:01 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 November)…………………………………………. 5:32 pm