Clouds and Cooler than Average Temps Continue; A More Uncertain Late Week Forecast (Mo/21Nov2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 21 November 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Moisture return, over the top of cooler surface based air and referred to as “overrunning”, continues as a weak disturbance moves eastward across the area. Rain chances will decrease by this afternoon as the disturbance departs off to the east.

(2) Clouds will linger with unseasonably chilly temperatures tomorrow into Wednesday.. a few sprinkles are possible but rain chances are very slim for any given location.

(3) It’s with a cautionary note (see forecast confidence section below) that I mention an approaching low pressure area and associated cold front that is forecast to sweep across Texas late Wednesday into Thursday allowing a strong area of surface high pressure, from the inter mountain west and Rockies, to build into the state in the wake of the front early Thursday. A few rain showers may accompany the front early Thanksgiving morning but rainfall amounts will be minimal. Skies will slowly clear late Thursday into Thursday night with brisk north northwesterly wind. Expect sunny skies and warmer temperatures for Friday.

(4) A developing area of surface low pressure over the central plains states will result in warming temperatures, even perhaps a little above average (for the first time since November 11th), with plenty of sunshine Saturday into Sunday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, rainfall totals of less than 0.20 inch over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through Thursday dropping back to a rather low confidence forecast Friday and Saturday before increasing back to a high confidence forecast for Sunday. Computer guidance has been unusually divergent in thought in regard to frontal and post frontal rain chances Thursday through Friday and this continues in our guidance to mid morning this morning with the manual NWS/Weather Service Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, just issued, now showing widespread rain over the area, with appreciable rainfall totals, Thursday into Friday. I’ll keep an eye on this part of the forecast with likely revisions to that part of the seven day forecast as we sort this out.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 21 November 2022

TODAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with rain and rain showers likely through early afternoon with rain decreasing thereafter. Rainfall into early afternoon, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.15 or less. High 49. Calm wind.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy. Low 42. Calm wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 54. Calm wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 46. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and a bit warmer. High 59. Calm wind becoming light southeasterly.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers developing after midnight. Patchy fog developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 51. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY)…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers before noon as a cold front passes. Slowly decreasing clouds in the mid and late afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 68. Light southeasterly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy, breezy and less humid. Low 43. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy and breezy. High 66. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 45. Northerly winds diminishing to light and variable.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Light wind becoming west southwesterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light westerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 72. Southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 28 November through Sunday / 04 December 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21Nov)………………………………………… 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (21Nov)………………………………………….. 5:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:03 am
Sunset tomorrow (22Nov)……………………………………………… 5:31 pm

Clouds… Rain Chances… Unseasonably Chilly Temperatures… Yep, That Pretty Much Sums it Up!!

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 18 November 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Another upper air low pressure disturbance and reinforcing cold front will move east to west through south Texas with rain chances increasing later tonight through tomorrow and tomorrow night before decreasing on Sunday. Much below average temperatures will continue.

(2) Weak moisture return, over the top of cooler surface based air, will develop again by late Sunday night through the first half of next week with rain chances increasing once again. Temperatures will warm a few degrees but still remain well below seasonal averages.

(3) Longer range guidance indicates that our Thanksgiving holiday may be cloudy with rain chances and temperatures a little warmer but still continuing below seasonal averages.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, rainfall totals of 1.00 to 1.50 inch over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through next Tuesday with a much lower confidence for the latter part of next week.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 18 November 2022

TODAY…. Cloudy and a little cooler. High 54. Light wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous light rain showers and sprinkles developing as a cold front passes. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60%chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 40. Easterly wind becoming north northeasterly 5 to 10 mph late.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy and colder with rain and rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.75 inch. High 43. Northerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Rain and rain showers before 8pm. Cloudy. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location before 8pm, will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 40. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with a few patches of rain developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch. High 48. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain and rain showers becoming likely. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 or less. Low 42. Light north northeasterly wind becoming calm late.

MONDAY…. Cloudy with rain and rain showers likely. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 or less. High 49. Calm wind becoming northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch. Low 42. Light easterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 58. Light wind becoming easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 46. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and warmer with a few rain showers developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch. High 62. Light wind becoming southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 51. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY /THANKSGIVING DAY)…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 65. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 25 November through Thursday / 01 December 2022
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18Nov)………………………………………… 6:59 am
Sunset this evening (18Nov)………………………………………….. 5:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:00 am
Sunset tomorrow (19Nov)……………………………………………… 5:32 pm