Much Cooler Temperatures to Start the New Week.. Hey, There’s More Rain on the Way, Too! (Mo/07Mar2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 07 March 2022
       

  
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. No Weather Hazards Expected ….

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) In the wake of our overnight cold front, a shallow wedge of colder surface based air has settled southward across our area. A few lingering post frontal rain showers will continue into midday. Clouds will partially break by this afternoon.

(2) A passing upper air low pressure disturbance, moving eastward over deep south Texas, will thicken cloud cover and return rain chances to the forecast by tonight into tomorrow. Most precipitation will remain south and southeast of the Austin metro area.

(3) In the wake of the upper air disturbance, rain chances and clouds will decrease by tomorrow night into Wednesday with a return to sunshine for Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will warm to back above seasonal averages by Thursday.

(4) A strong cold front will move across the area late Thursday night with a few rain showers possible. Skies will clear pretty rapidly Friday following the cold frontal passage. As skies become mostly clear Friday through the weekend, much cooler air will once take hold over the IH35 corridor with freezes possible, especially in low lying and outlying areas both overnight Friday night as well as overnight Saturday night.

(5) As southerly surface winds return by late Sunday with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will warm back to near seasonal averages.

 

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting less than 0.25 inch of  precipitation over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.  

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 07 March 2022

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. Isolated sprinkles before midday. Rainfall, given a 20%chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Decreasing clouds becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 54. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then increasing clouds. Low 41. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph decreasing after midnight.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool. Scattered patches of rain and a few rain showers. Rainfall, given a 50%chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 50. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles before 10pm. Rainfall, given a 20%chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 39. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight.

WEDNESDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming mostly sunny. High 67. Calm wind becoming north northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 41. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine and warmer. High 75. Calm wind becoming southerly 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers developing as a cold front passes after midnight. Rainfall, given a 20%chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch. Turning windy and colder. Low 38. Light southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Windy and unseasonably cool. Cloudy with a few sprinkles before noon. Rainfall, given a 20%chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Decreasing clouds midday becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 52. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear with a late season freeze possible in the outlying and low lying areas. Low 25 to 30 away from the urban areas to 30 to 35 in the city. Northerly wind decreasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine and unseasonably cool. High 58. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear with a late season freeze possible in the outlying and low lying areas. Low 27 to 31 away from the urban areas to 32 to 36 in the city.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 70. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 14 March 2022 through Sunday / 20 March 2022
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (07 March)……………………………………….. 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (07 March)…………………………………………. 6:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (08 March)……………………………………………. 6:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (08 March)…………………………………………….. 6:35 pm

A Few Morning Sprinkles with Clouds and a Warming Trend Continuing.. A Stronger Cold Front Due First Thing Monday Morning (Fr/04Mar2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 04 March 2022
       

  
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. No Weather Hazards Expected ….

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As we wrap up the week, warmer temperatures with the southerly surface wind flow prevails over our area. Enough low level moisture has returned for increased cloud cover, especially the late night and early morning variety, with a slightly more unstable air mass expected through the weekend. A few sprinkles have developed over the area this morning but have only produced trace rainfall amounts.

(2) With atmospheric pressure lowering over the south central states and a slightly more unstable atmosphere, we’ll see some isolated to widely scattered patches of rain and rain showers mainly in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor by tomorrow as well as Sunday morning with a better chance by Sunday night into early Monday as atmospheric lift increases ahead of a cold front that will move through the area by daybreak Monday.

(4) In the wake of Monday morning cold front, we’ll see some lingering clouds and a return to cooler temperatures into the first half of next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting 0.10 inch or less of  precipitation over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.  

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 04 March 2022

TODAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog becoming partly to mostly cloudy. A few morning sprinkles. Rainfall amounts, given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 79. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher afternoon gusts.

TONIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds becoming partly to mostly cloudy. A few morning sprinkles. Rainfall amounts, given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 80. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds becoming partly to mostly cloudy. A few morning sprinkles. Rainfall amounts, given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 81. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat developing after midnight. Rainfall, given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.20 inch. Low 60. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts becoming more west and southwesterly after midnight.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy and cooler as a cold front passes around sunrise. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly before 10am. Rainfall, given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. Decreasing clouds in the afternoon. High 66. Southwesterly wind shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 40. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 60. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 41. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 68. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 42. Light northeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine and warmer. High 76. Light wind becoming southerly 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Friday / 11 March 2022 through Thursday / 17 March 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04 March)……………………………………….. 6:53 am
Sunset this evening (04 March)…………………………………………. 6:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (05 March)……………………………………………. 6:52 am
Sunset tomorrow (05 March)…………………………………………….. 6:33 pm