Rain Chances Still There But My Confidence Down a Bit (Th/11Aug2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 11 August 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. Elevated Heat Indices with Above Average Temps Continuing ….
…. High Wildfire Danger Continues …
…. Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With the upper level high pressure area continuing to be to our distant north and northwest, a series of weak disturbances has moved west southwestward over the last day or so. Rainfall amounts, especially along the IH35 corridor in the Austin metro area, have (so far) been disappointing with heaviest rains to the east, southeast and west of the IH35 corridor. I still think that we’ll see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for our area today and tomorrow into Saturday but short range/high resolution model guidance isn’t that encouraging.

(2) By the late in the weekend through much of next week, the upper level high will once again become a little stronger overhead with rain chances dropping from the forecast. As this occurs, afternoon high temperatures will rise once again with some triple digit afternoon high temperatures returning.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of 0.25″ to 0.50″ over our area over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

—-

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 11 August 2022

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.25″ inch or less. High 101. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch. Low 77. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.25″ inch or less. High 99. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around thunderstorms.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 9pm, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 77. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. High 99. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Isolated rain showers before 7pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 103. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 18 August through Wednesday / 24 August 2022
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11 Aug)………………………………………… 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (11 Aug)………………………………………….. 8:16 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (12 Aug)…………………………………………….. 6:56 am
Sunset tomorrow (12 Aug)……………………………………………… 8:15 pm

Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Increase (We/10Aug2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 10 August 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. Elevated Heat Indices with Above Average Temps Continuing ….
…. High Wildfire Danger Continues …
…. Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With the upper level high pressure area continuing to be to our distant north and northwest, a series of weak disturbances is moving west southwestward into our area from the Ark-La-Tex area. As a result, we’ll see widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for our area today with the best chances tomorrow into Friday. Rain chances will decrease but still remain in the forecast on Saturday.

(2) By the late in the weekend into early next week, the upper level high will once again become a little stronger overhead with rain chances dropping from the forecast. As this occurs, afternoon high temperatures will rise once again with some triple digit afternoon high temperatures returning.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of 0.25″ to 0.50″ over our area over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

—-

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 10 August 2022

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. High 101. Southeasterly wind becoming more easterly 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 77. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25″ to 0.50″ inch. High 96. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.25″ inch or less. Low 77. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.25″ inch. High 96. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 9pm, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 77. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. High 98. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Isolated rain showers before 7pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10″ inch or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 17 August through Tuesday / 23 August 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (10 Aug)………………………………………… 6:55 am
Sunset this evening (10 Aug)………………………………………….. 8:17 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (11 Aug)…………………………………………….. 6:56 am
Sunset tomorrow (11 Aug)……………………………………………… 8:16 pm