A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern for Now (Th/16Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 16 September 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and more stable weather pattern continues for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will be warming back well above seasonal, perhaps record high, temperatures by tomorrow into the weekend with afternoon heat index values back in the 100 to 105 F range.

(2) A slightly more unstable air mass, with a more pronounced moist surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico and weak cold front moving into west Texas, will result in the return to very slim rain chances by Sunday into Monday.

(3) In a lower confidence forecast, the weak southeastward moving cold front will slowly advance into the area as it becomes stationary Wednesday into Thursday. Rain chances will increase a bit as the front approaches and washes out overhead.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting rainfall amounts of less than 0.25″ inch.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence through Tuesday with low to medium confidence Wednesday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 16 September 2021

TODAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. High 93. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Light wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Light wind becoming northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light east northeasterly wind  becoming calm.

SUNDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 94. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.

MONDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 95. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly clear. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then partly cloudy. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 22 September 2021 through Tuesday / 28 September 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation…  Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 September)…………………………………… 7:16 am
Sunset this evening (16 September)…………………………………….. 7:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 September)……………………………………….. 7:17 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 September)………………………………………… 7:35 pm

Sunshine Makes an Appearance Along with More Heat (We/15Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 15 September 2021
 
Not Available Today…
   
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A drier and more stable weather pattern is unfolding for the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will be warming back to near to slightly above seasonal temperatures by Friday into the weekend.

(2) A slightly more unstable air mass, with a more pronounced surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico and weak cold front moving into west Texas, will result in the return to very slim rain chances by Sunday into Monday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting little in the way of rainfall.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High confidence through Tuesday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 15 September 2021

TODAY….  Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. High 91. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts in the morning.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. High 93. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 94. Light west southwesterly wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Light west southwesterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then most clear. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 22 September 2021 through Tuesday / 28 September 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation…  Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (15 September)…………………………………… 7:16 am
Sunset this evening (15 September)…………………………………….. 7:36 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (16 September)……………………………………….. 7:16 am
Sunset tomorrow (16 September)………………………………………… 7:35 pm