Warmer Than Average Temperatures But Some Cold Fronts in our Future (Th/02Dec2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 02 December 2021
       

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Threats Expected Today or Tonight …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A quiet and benign fall weather pattern, with some morning low clouds and patchy fog and a mix of clouds and sunshine, is expected to persist over south central Texas for the balance of the week as southerly surface winds prevail and afternoon high temperatures warm back to well above seasonal averages.

(2) On Friday, an upper level low pressure disturbance is forecast to cross the area but I am thinking that rain chances should be confined to areas east and southeast of the IH35 corridor.

(3) Forecast guidance is still calling for a weak cold front on Saturday afternoon but limited moisture and instability is resulting in the dropping of any rain chances from my forecast. Temperatures will be falling back closer to seasonal averages for Sunday into early next week.

(4) Another weak cold front will move into the area late Sunday night but it will likely weaken pretty quickly and return northward as a warm front by early Tuesday.  

(5) Another cold front appears likely for next Wednesday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting less than 0.25 inch of rainfall for areas mainly east of the Austin area/IH35 corridor over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence through Sunday.. high confidence Sunday night through Wednesday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 02 December 2021

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog otherwise partly cloudy. High 79. Light southerly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with some low clouds late. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog otherwise partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with some low clouds late. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 79. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy late. Low 63. Light south southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 79. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and a little cooler as a cold front passes around midnight. Low 53. Light southwesterly wind shifting northerly 5 to 10 mph around midnight.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 65. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 50. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm late.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy and a little warmer. High 73. Calm wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy late. Low 56. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds then becoming mostly sunny and a bit cooler as a cold front passes by midday. High 68. Southwesterly wind shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Thursday / 09 December 2021 through Wednesday / 15 December 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average  
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 December)……………………………………. 7:11 am
Sunset this evening (02 December)……………………………………… 5:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (03 December)………………………………………… 7:12 am
Sunset tomorrow (03 December)…………………………………………. 5:30 pm

Patchy Morning Low Clouds and Fog.. Otherwise the Dry Fall Weather Pattern Continues (We/01Dec2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 01 December 2021
       

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Threats Expected Today or Tonight …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A quiet and benign fall weather pattern, with some morning low clouds and patchy fog and a mix of clouds and sunshine, is expected to persist over south central Texas for the remainder of the week as southerly surface winds prevail and afternoon high temperatures warm back to above seasonal averages.

(2) On Friday, an upper level low pressure disturbance is forecast to cross the area but I am thinking that rain chances should be confined to areas east and southeast of the IH35 corridor.

(3) Forecast guidance is still calling for a weak cold front on Saturday afternoon but limited moisture and instability is resulting in the dropping of any rain chances from my forecast. Temperatures will be falling back closer to seasonal averages for Sunday into early next week.

(4) Another weak cold front will move into the area Monday but it will likely weaken pretty quickly and return northward as a warm front by early Tuesday.  

(5) A potentially stronger cold front appears just beyond the current seven day forecast period next Wednesday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting 0.25 inch or less rainfall for our area over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence through Friday night.. high confidence Saturday through Tuesday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 01 December 2021

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog otherwise partly cloudy. High 77. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with some low clouds late. Low 56. Light south southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog otherwise partly cloudy. High 77. Light southerly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with some low clouds late. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy fog otherwise partly cloudy. High 78. South southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with some low clouds late. Low 60. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny as a cold front passes in the afternoon. High 79. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting northerly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and a little cooler. Low 53. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 72. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 50. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Light wind becoming north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 50. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm late.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy and a little warmer. High 73. Calm wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 08 December 2021 through Tuesday / 14 December 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average  
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 December)……………………………………. 7:10 am
Sunset this evening (01 December)……………………………………… 5:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 December)………………………………………… 7:11 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 December)…………………………………………. 5:30 pm