AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER HAZARDS
THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Afternoon Heat Indices in the 100 to 105 F Degree Range …

… Lightning Risk With Any Thunderstorm Around the Area Today into Tonight …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…

(1) After my weather forecast “came off the rails” yesterday with much more in the way of cloud cover, temperatures only in the 90s and even a few light sprinkles around the area, a weak cold front has settled southward into the areas just south and east of the Austin area proper. With it expected now to wash out overhead and just to our south and east over the coming days, our atmosphere is a bit more unstable. As a result, I am lowering temperatures a little (not much, though..) and am including a slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday.

(2) By late Saturday, the front should be completely washed out with upper level high pressure (the “lid” on the atmosphere) becoming at least weakly established over the area. As a result, a drier and more stable weather situation is expected for Sunday into Labor Day and into the middle part of next week.
 
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Wednesday / 28 August 2019

TODAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 99 with an afternoon heat stress index of 100 to 105. East southeasterly wind picking up to 4 to 8 mph. Winds strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. Low 77. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late. Winds strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 100 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph. Winds strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 7pm. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 100 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph. Winds strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 99 with an afternoon heat index of 102 to 106. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph. Winds strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99 with an afternoon heat stress index of 101 to 106. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY /LABOR DAY/…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99 with an afternoon heat stress index of 101 to 106. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 98 with an afternoon heat stress index of 100 to 105. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Wednesday / 03 September 2019 through Tuesday / 10 September 2019…
Temperatures… Above Average   
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 August)………………………………….. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (28 August)……………………………………. 7:58 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (29 August)………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset tomorrow (29 August)……………………………………….. 7:57 pm    

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER HAZARDS
THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Afternoon Heat Indices in the 105 to 110 F Degree Range …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…

(1) The atmosphere has become more stable once again. Afternoon high temperatures will continue well above average over the next 24 hours. 

(3) The upper level high, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, will shift more west and northwest of our area allowing for a little destablization of the atmosphere beginning tomorrow. A cold front will move southward into Texas from the north and settle into south central Texas and the local area as it becomes stationary. At it closest approach to our local area, beginning tomorrow, I will include a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

(3) In what is now a medium to high confidence forecast, it looks like a dry and more stable weather situation for Friday through most of the Labor Day weekend. That being said, some models trying to bring a slug of very moist and unstable air moving west northwestward off the Gulf of Mexico beginning early next week. At this point, I will keep a dry weather pattern for the local area through Sunday and Labor Day but, as usual, we need to keep an eye on weather features to the distant east southeast of the local area since these features, if they hold together, could result in rain and thunderstorm chances by late on Labor Day.
 
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Tuesday / 27 August 2019

TODAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 103 with an afternoon heat stress index of 106 to 112. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Low 79. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 100 with an afternoon heat stress index of 103 to 108. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more east northeasterly in the afternoon. Winds strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. Low 78. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm late. Winds strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. High 99 with an afternoon heat index of 103 to 107. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 in the afternoon. Winds strong, gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99 with an afternoon heat stress index of 103 to 107. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100 with an afternoon heat stress index of 105 to 109. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100 with an afternoon heat stress index of 105 to 109. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Tuesday / 02 September 2019 through Monday / 09 September 2019…
Temperatures… Above Average   
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (27 August)………………………………….. 7:05 am
Sunset this evening (27 August)……………………………………. 7:59 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (28 August)………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset tomorrow (28 August)……………………………………….. 7:58 pm