Updated 915am CT – Monday / 08 February 2015

…. An Extended Dry and Stable Weather Pattern ….
…. A Cold Front Mid Week will Cool Temperatures a Bit ….
…. No Rain Expected over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure is over the southern Rockies and the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening cold front extends southwestward from eastern Kentucky into Alabama and Mississippi and then westward into central Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes into the southeastern USA. Another trough stretches southward from the west coast of Washington to northwestern California. A ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is centered from northern Mexico into the southwestern states and the intermountain west. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

As we start the new week, a dry and stable weather pattern continues across south central Texas. Even with a weakening cold front moving southward through the area this morning, this type of weather pattern will continue over the next few days with temperatures well above seasonal averages.

Another cold front.. dry in nature.. will pass through the area by mid and late afternoon Wednesday with temperatures falling back closer to seasonal averages.

No rainfall is seen over the next seven days for south central Texas.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 06 February 2015

…. Clouds Slowly Break ….
…. A Rapid Warming Trend Starts Today and Continues Through the Weekend ….

On this Friday morning…. eastward moving surface high pressure extends southwestward from Alabama to the Texas coastal plains with a developing low pressure trough.. a line of low pressure.. southward from eastern Colorado into south central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are becoming more southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward along the USA eastern seaboard. A ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is centered from northern Mexico into New Mexico and then into Montana. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are turning more north northwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

The clouds… that have present over the last few days.. are now breaking as a southerly surface wind returns to the area. As a result, daytime high temperatures over the next few days will be warming with temperatures well below average for our area over the weekend.

Another weak cold front will pass through the area by early Monday with a second one due next Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most guidance suggests that the first frontal passage will be dry with the a relatively dry stable air mass in place being reinforced.

The second front, due Wednesday night, will be marked by increasing clouds with a return to slim rain chances.

Temperatures will cool a bit in the wake of the fronts with afternoon high temperatures in their wake being a little closer to average behind the first front.. then we go back to below average temperatures with the clouds and slim rain chances for the end of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel