Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 03 February 2015

…. Clouds with Rain Chances As Upper Air Pressure Disturbance Passes ….
…. Partial Clearing for Latter Part of the Week through the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface high pressure is centered from Virginia southwestward into northwestern Louisiana and east Texas. A trough. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are easterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a northeastward moving upper level low pressure disturbance is located over northern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

A cooler surface air mass remains in place across south central Texas as the upper level low pressure disturbance continues to track northeastward across northern Mexico and then across Texas and our area by later today through tonight and into early Wednesday. As the system moves more overhead tonight into early tomorrow, we’ll increase atmospheric lift and instability a bit with rain chances returning to our forecast. Early projections.. courtesy of the National Weather Service.. don’t indicate that much rain with the passage of this upper level system with rainfall in most areas at 1/4 inch or less.

With the system moving northeastward out of the area by mid morning tomorrow.. we’ll see clouds break with another cold front sliding through the area by early Thursday morning.

A dry and stable weather pattern will persist late week into the weekend with a warming trend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days (rain chances, timing and amounts for today.. tonight and early tomorrow being the primary issue).

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel