Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 05 February 2015

…. Cold Front Passes in Wake of Disturbance ….
…. Partial Clearing Tomorrow through the Weekend ….
…. A Rapid Warming Trend Starts Tomorrow and Continues Through the Weekend ….

On this Thursday morning…. a cold front has passed southeastward off the Texas coast into the Gulf of Mexico. Eastward moving surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure covers the eastern half of the USA. A ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is centered over the western half of the USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are turning more northwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.

In the wake of the cold front that passed over the area between 1 and 2 am this morning.. a colder surface air mass has built southeastward through Texas. At the same time, low level moisture continues to be trapped on top of the colder air. The clouds that we’re seeing now will likely remain in place across south central Texas today before breaking tonight. As a result, daytime high temperatures today will be well below average for the area.

As the high pressure area.. that has moved into the area in the wake of the front.. moves eastward by late tonight into Friday, south southeasterly winds will quickly return to our area. With sunshine Friday into the weekend, we’ll see a rapid warming trend with temperatures going to well above average for the area.

Another weak cold front will pass through the area by early Monday with a second one due next Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most guidance suggests that these will be dry frontal passages with the relatively dry stable air mass in place being reinforced by each frontal passage. Temperatures will cool a bit in the wake of the fronts with afternoon high temperatures in their wake being a little closer to average.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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