Updated 915am CT – Monday / 16 February 2015

…. Cloudy, Breezy and Much Colder Temperatures ….
…. Rain Chances Linger into Tuesday ….
…. A Late Week Warming Trend ….
…. Another Strong Cold Front Due Next Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a cold front is rapidly moving southeastward toward the Texas coast as chilly surface high pressure.. centered over the central USA and the Great Lakes.. settles into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are gusty northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from the Great Lakes into the southwest part of Texas into northern Mexico. At the base of that trough, a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is located over northwestern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.

Surface high pressure is sinking south southeastward through the area this morning in the wake of our cold front that moved through the area just before sunrise this morning. As the colder surface air moves in, with the upper level low pressure and disturbance still well to the west, we’re experiencing a bit of an overrunning pattern with clouds and a few lingering patches of rain.

By tonight into early Tuesday, as the upper air trough and disturbance complete their move through the area and surface temperatures fall closer to freezing, we’ll see the possibility of some mixed sleet and snow flakes. Ground temperatures are quite warm, however, so I do not anticipate any problems.

Skies will clear by midday tomorrow with chilly temperatures continuing through tomorrow night.

Wednesday through Thursday, we’ll see plenty of sunshine with a rapid warming trend with afternoon highs back to the 60s and 70s. A weak cold front is slated to try to backdoor its way into Texas from the northeast Thursday but the only effect locally will be to increase/thicken clouds and to introduce some slim rain chances for Thursday night into the weekend.

Another stronger cold front will move southward through the area by about daybreak on Sunday with the best rain chances Saturday night into early Sunday as the front approaches and then moves through the area. Much cooler air will move into the area in the wake of the front on Sunday with some post frontal overrunning expected for Sunday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through early Tuesday (watching exact rainfall timing and amounts and possibility of mixed winter precipitation) then my confidence increases to a high to very high Tuesday night through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 13 February 2015

…. A Warming Trend Through the Weekend ….
…. Rain Chances Return by Sunday into Monday ….
…. Colder Air Returns Us to Winter Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. surface high pressure is located over Illinois and western Tennessee. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are becoming southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deep upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure covers the eastern half of the USA with a ridge.. or line of high pressure.. along the west coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

The chilly surface high pressure area, that has settled southward over our area in the wake of Wednesday night’s front, is moving eastward and we’re seeing a return southerly surface wind flow. As a result, we’ll see a pretty stout warming trend today through our weekend.

Clouds will increase a bit over Texas by Sunday into Monday as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist and a bit more unstable. Another cold front will try to “backdoor” itself (moving in from the northeast) on Sunday. The best chance of rain and even isolated thunderstorms appears to be in the Sunday night.. Monday and Monday night time period with the approach and passage of a strong upper level low pressure disturbance.

Timed with the movement overhead of the upper air low pressure disturbance, very cold arctic air will surge southward out of western and central Canada and into the central USA and into Texas. Although atmospheric model guidance has tended to pull back a little in its forecast on the intensity of the cold air, this front will still likely usher in some of the coldest air of the new year with overnight low temperatures across our area likely to be freezing. The much colder temperatures will likely linger through much of the remainder of next week.

Skies will initially clear as the coldest air arrives but there continues to be signs in the longer range guidance that clouds and the chance of overrunning clouds and precipitation may return by later next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through Sunday.. then my confidence decreases to a medium to high by Sunday night through Thursday with the forecast cold frontal passage, exact extent of cold air as well as associated clouds and rain chances.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel