Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 06 February 2015

…. Clouds Slowly Break ….
…. A Rapid Warming Trend Starts Today and Continues Through the Weekend ….

On this Friday morning…. eastward moving surface high pressure extends southwestward from Alabama to the Texas coastal plains with a developing low pressure trough.. a line of low pressure.. southward from eastern Colorado into south central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are becoming more southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward along the USA eastern seaboard. A ridge.. or line.. of upper level high pressure is centered from northern Mexico into New Mexico and then into Montana. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are turning more north northwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

The clouds… that have present over the last few days.. are now breaking as a southerly surface wind returns to the area. As a result, daytime high temperatures over the next few days will be warming with temperatures well below average for our area over the weekend.

Another weak cold front will pass through the area by early Monday with a second one due next Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most guidance suggests that the first frontal passage will be dry with the a relatively dry stable air mass in place being reinforced.

The second front, due Wednesday night, will be marked by increasing clouds with a return to slim rain chances.

Temperatures will cool a bit in the wake of the fronts with afternoon high temperatures in their wake being a little closer to average behind the first front.. then we go back to below average temperatures with the clouds and slim rain chances for the end of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through the next seven days.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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