Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 12 February 2015

…. Cooler Temperatures Today with a Warming Trend Tomorrow into Weekend ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Return by Sunday into Monday ….
…. Much Colder Air Returns Us to Winter Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a cold front extends south southwestward from western North Carolina and the Florida panhandle across the Gulf of Mexico to around Brownsville and northeastern Mexico. High pressure, north of the front, is located over Minnesota. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure disturbance is southwest of El Paso. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 15 to 25 mph.

In the wake of the cold front that passed the local area last night, a cooler.. drier and stable weather pattern prevails across south central Texas. Temperatures will be rather chilly today.. a few degrees below seasonal averages.

As the surface high pressure area to our distant north moves eastward, we’ll see a return southerly surface wind flow by late tonight through tomorrow and the weekend. We’ll see a pretty stout warming trend as a result for our weekend.

Clouds will increase a bit over Texas by Sunday into Monday as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist and a bit more unstable. Another cold front will try to “backdoor” itself (moving in from the northeast) on Sunday. The best chance of rain and even a few thunderstorms appears to be in the Monday.. Monday night into early Tuesday time period with the approach and passage of a strong upper level low pressure disturbance.

The big news is that, with the passage of the upper level low pressure disturbance, we’ll see a strong cold frontal passage in the afternoon hours on Tuesday. This will usher in some of the coldest air of the new year with overnight low temperatures across our area likely to be in the “hard freeze” range. The much colder temperatures will likely linger through much of the remainder of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through Sunday.. then my confidence decreases to a medium to high by Sunday night through Wednesday with the forecast cold frontal passages and associated rain chances.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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