Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 09 February 2015

…. An Extended Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. A Cold Front Late Tomorrow will Cool Temperatures a Bit ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Return by Early Next Week ….

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is over New Mexico as well as over the Great Lakes states. A weakening stationary front extends southeast across Texas and northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward along the eastern seaboard of the United States. An upper level high pressure is over north and northeastern Mexico and the Rio Grande country of south Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

With the upper level high pressure area (think.. “lid” on the atmosphere) to the south and southwest of the local area, a dry and stable weather pattern continues across south central Texas. Even with a weakening stationary front overhead if the local area this morning, this type of weather pattern will continue into midweek with temperatures above seasonal averages.

A cold front.. dry in nature.. will pass through the area by late afternoon into the early evening hours tomorrow with temperatures falling back closer to seasonal averages for the latter part of the week into the weekend.

Another cold front.. a little more “backdoor” in nature (moving from the northeast).. will pass through our area in the predawn hours on Sunday again acting to reinforce the surface air in place. In the wake of this second front, there are some indications that an overrunning pattern.. with increased clouds and rain chances.. by Sunday night into Monday.

Another.. perhaps stronger.. cold front looks to pass through the area by next Tuesday night with much cooler temperatures following.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through Sunday.. then my confidence decreases to a medium to high by Sunday night through Tuesday with that next series of fronts and rain chances.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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