Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 16 February 2015

…. Cloudy, Breezy and Much Colder Temperatures ….
…. Rain Chances Linger into Tuesday ….
…. A Late Week Warming Trend ….
…. Another Strong Cold Front Due Next Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a cold front is rapidly moving southeastward toward the Texas coast as chilly surface high pressure.. centered over the central USA and the Great Lakes.. settles into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are gusty northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from the Great Lakes into the southwest part of Texas into northern Mexico. At the base of that trough, a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is located over northwestern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.

Surface high pressure is sinking south southeastward through the area this morning in the wake of our cold front that moved through the area just before sunrise this morning. As the colder surface air moves in, with the upper level low pressure and disturbance still well to the west, we’re experiencing a bit of an overrunning pattern with clouds and a few lingering patches of rain.

By tonight into early Tuesday, as the upper air trough and disturbance complete their move through the area and surface temperatures fall closer to freezing, we’ll see the possibility of some mixed sleet and snow flakes. Ground temperatures are quite warm, however, so I do not anticipate any problems.

Skies will clear by midday tomorrow with chilly temperatures continuing through tomorrow night.

Wednesday through Thursday, we’ll see plenty of sunshine with a rapid warming trend with afternoon highs back to the 60s and 70s. A weak cold front is slated to try to backdoor its way into Texas from the northeast Thursday but the only effect locally will be to increase/thicken clouds and to introduce some slim rain chances for Thursday night into the weekend.

Another stronger cold front will move southward through the area by about daybreak on Sunday with the best rain chances Saturday night into early Sunday as the front approaches and then moves through the area. Much cooler air will move into the area in the wake of the front on Sunday with some post frontal overrunning expected for Sunday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through early Tuesday (watching exact rainfall timing and amounts and possibility of mixed winter precipitation) then my confidence increases to a high to very high Tuesday night through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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