Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 11 February 2015

…. A Cold Front This Evening will Cool Temperatures a Bit ….
…. Slim Rain Chances Return by Early Next Week ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front is moving southeastward through northwest Texas with much cooler high pressure building southward from western and central Canada in its wake. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving upper level low pressure disturbance is over the four corners region. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

Even with some dense fog this morning, a relatively dry and stable weather pattern continues across south central Texas. For one last day, our afternoon high temperatures will continue to be well above average today.

As the strong upper air disturbance out west moves eastward, the cold front to our northwest will pass through the area by early tonight. The front will be dry in nature with temperatures falling back closer to seasonal averages for the latter part of the week into the weekend.

Another cold front.. a little more “backdoor” in nature (moving from the northeast).. will pass through our area in the predawn hours on Sunday again acting to reinforce the surface air in place. In the wake of this second front, there are some indications that an overrunning pattern.. with increased clouds and rain chances.. by Sunday night into Monday.

Another.. perhaps stronger.. cold front looks to pass through the area by next Tuesday night with much cooler temperatures following.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through Sunday.. then my confidence decreases to a medium to high by Sunday night through Tuesday with that next series of fronts and rain chances.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel