TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 20 February 2014

TODAY…. Morning low clouds with patchy drizzle through the morning.. then clearing, windy and less humid in the afternoon as a cold front passes. Morning rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. High 77 to 81. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting more southwesterly by midday and then northerly 15 to 25 mph and gusty during the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Clear and cooler. Low 38 to 42. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine and not as warm. High 69 to 73. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT….  Mostly clear. Low 41 to 45. Light northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70 to 74. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 46 to 50. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 72 to 76. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming northeasterly as a cold front passes.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 52. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 66 to 70. Light southeasterly wind becoming easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 49. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 64 to 68. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. Low 46 to 50. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a chance of rain.. rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch. High 55 to 59. Northeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 27 February 2014 through Wednesday / 5 March 2014…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 February)…………………………….. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (20 February)………………………………. 6:23 pm
Sunrise Friday (21 February)……………………………………… 7:05 am
Sunset Friday (21 February)………………………………………. 6:24 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 20 February 2014

…. A Stronger Cold Front is Passing Through Texas ….
…. More Clouds Due Early Next Week ….
…. Cross Your Fingers – A Better Chance of Rain for the Middle Part of Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a strong cold front is sweeping southeastward from an intensifying surface low over southeastern Kansas across the south Texas plains into southern New Mexico and westward into Arizona. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over northern Nevada and southern Idaho. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are south southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a low pressure trough.. or a line of low pressure.. has deepened over the central USA from the Dakotas into Texas. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 50 to 60 mph.

Low clouds prevail across our area this morning with some patchy drizzle in some areas.

The strong cold front.. that is moving southeastward through Texas.. will move across our local area in the midday into the afternoon today. While a few rain showers could develop with the atmospheric lift associated the front.. I think those rain chances will be more to the east of the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor.

A clearing sky and cooler (still above normal, though) temperatures will prevail tonight through tomorrow and into the early part of the weekend.

Clouds will increase by Sunday night into Monday as surface winds become more south southeasterly and low level moisture increases across the area. Several very weak cold fronts are suggested for the time period which will result in afternoon high temperatures being a little closer to normal. Guidance suggests slim rain chances for early next week.. but the better chance may hold off until Tuesday night into Wednesday as we get into a cooler and more pronounced overrunning pattern.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high through Sunday then falling to low to moderate confidence by Monday into Wednesday as it regards rain chances, frontal passage times as well as temperatures  locally.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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