TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 24 February 2014

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. High 67 to 71. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming easterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT….  A cloudy sky with a few rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. Low 58 to 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise a cloudy sky with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch. High 74 to 78. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy.. windy and turning colder with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 39 to 43. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph and gusty as a cold front passes the area by 9pm.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. High 41 to 45. Gusty northerly winds in the morning decreasing to 8 to 15 mph by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky. Low 35 to 39. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Clouds in the morning becoming partly cloudy and warmer by afternoon. High 58 to 62. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southeasterly in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 49 to 53. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy and much warmer. High 75 to 79. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front passes by 7pm. Low 42 to 46. Southerly wind shifting north northeasterly 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 63 to 67. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy into late evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 49. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise mostly cloudy with a few rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th inch. High 67 to 71. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 3 March 2014 through Sunday / 9 March 2014…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24 February)…………………………….. 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (24 February)………………………………. 6:26 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (25 February)………………………………….. 7:01 am
Sunset Tuesday (25 February)…………………………………… 6:27 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Monday / 24 February 2014

…. Cloudy and Better Rain Chances through the Middle Part of Week ….
…. A Little More Sunshine Late Week into the Weekend ….
…. Several Cold Fronts on Tap over the Next Seven Days ….

On this Monday morning…. a weakening cold front extends south southwestward from the Carolinas southwestward into southern Alabama and Mississippi and then off the upper Texas coast to near Corpus Christi and then westward into southwest Texas and northern Mexico. The surface high pressure area /1036mb/ behind the front is centered over southern Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a large low pressure area.. over southeastern Canada and Hudson Bay.. is resulting in a deepening trough (or line) of low pressure over the northeastern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.

The cold front that moved through our area yesterday is just off the upper and middle Texas coast into south Texas. This front will return back northward later today into tonight as an upper level disturbance approaches the area from the west.

By tomorrow into tomorrow night, as the upper air low pressure disturbance crosses the area, we’ll see a peak in atmospheric instability and lift and, as a result, our highest rain chances of the week. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible. As the upper air disturbance departs to our northeast by tomorrow night, a strong surface cold front will surge south southeastward across the area.

As the shallow surface wedge of colder air moves into the area, moisture will overrun the colder air with clouds persisting through Wednesday night into Thursday with unseasonably chilly air prevails.

Clouds will break with a partly cloudy sky.. return southeasterly surface wind and warmer temperatures Thursday into Friday before yet another cold front moves through the area Friday evening. I do not expect much sensible weather, other than a wind shift, with the front.

Partly cloudy skies will prevail with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday into Saturday night before clouds increase with slim rain chances by Sunday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is moderate high through the next few days (frontal timing and rainfall amounts throw in a bit of uncertainty). My forecast confidence rises back to high for Thursday through the weekend.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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