Updated 845am CT – Wednesday / 19 February 2014
…. A Mostly Dry Weather Pattern Over the Next Seven Days ….
…. A Stronger Cold Front Will Pass Through our Area Tomorrow ….
…. More Clouds Due Early Next Week ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening cold front is moving southward through Arkansas and north Texas. Surface high pressure is over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… the wind flow over the USA is still largely zonal.. that is, west to east but low pressure troughs.. or lines of low pressure.. have developed from the Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley and another over the northwestern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 35 to 45 mph.
The front that was to our southeast yesterday has weakened and pulled back northward as a warm front allowing low level moisture to make its return to our area. Even so, a generally dry weather pattern continues across our area. Morning low clouds will slowly burn off allowing for abundant afternoon sunshine and well above average temperatures to continue today.
Our next cold front.. a bit stronger.. will move across our area tomorrow by the midday into afternoon hours. While a few rain showers could develop with the atmospheric lift associated the front.. I think those rain chances will be more to the east of the IH35 corridor. A clearing sky and cooler (still above normal, though) temperatures will prevail tomorrow and tomorrow night into Friday and the early part of the weekend.
Clouds will increase by Sunday night into Monday as surface winds become more south southeasterly and low level moisture increases across the area. Several very weak cold fronts are suggested for the time period which will result in afternoon high temperatures being a little closer to normal. Guidance suggests slim rain chances for Monday night and Tuesday but I’m holding off on mentioning rain chances until I get better confidence in those chances.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high through Sunday then falling to low to moderate confidence by Monday into Tuesday as it regards rain chances locally.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel