Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 20 February 2014

…. A Stronger Cold Front is Passing Through Texas ….
…. More Clouds Due Early Next Week ….
…. Cross Your Fingers – A Better Chance of Rain for the Middle Part of Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a strong cold front is sweeping southeastward from an intensifying surface low over southeastern Kansas across the south Texas plains into southern New Mexico and westward into Arizona. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over northern Nevada and southern Idaho. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are south southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a low pressure trough.. or a line of low pressure.. has deepened over the central USA from the Dakotas into Texas. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 50 to 60 mph.

Low clouds prevail across our area this morning with some patchy drizzle in some areas.

The strong cold front.. that is moving southeastward through Texas.. will move across our local area in the midday into the afternoon today. While a few rain showers could develop with the atmospheric lift associated the front.. I think those rain chances will be more to the east of the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor.

A clearing sky and cooler (still above normal, though) temperatures will prevail tonight through tomorrow and into the early part of the weekend.

Clouds will increase by Sunday night into Monday as surface winds become more south southeasterly and low level moisture increases across the area. Several very weak cold fronts are suggested for the time period which will result in afternoon high temperatures being a little closer to normal. Guidance suggests slim rain chances for early next week.. but the better chance may hold off until Tuesday night into Wednesday as we get into a cooler and more pronounced overrunning pattern.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high through Sunday then falling to low to moderate confidence by Monday into Wednesday as it regards rain chances, frontal passage times as well as temperatures  locally.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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