Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CT – Friday / 21 February 2014

…. Sunshine into the Weekend ….
…. More Clouds Due Late Weekend into Next Week ….
…. A Better Chance of Rain for the Middle Part of Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a cold front extends south southwestward from a surface low pressure area /1008mb/ over the Carolinas through eastern Georgia and northern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico well south of Brownsville. The surface high pressure area /1023mb/ behind the front is situated over east Texas. A developing trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southwestward from western Kansas into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Another high pressure area /1024mb/ is over the four corners region northwestward into the Pacific Northwest. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong low pressure area.. over Lake Superior.. has a deep trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward from it over the eastern 1/3rd of the USA. Broad west to northwesterly winds aloft cover the western 2/3rds of the country. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 55 to 65 mph.

The strong cold front that moved through our area yesterday is now well to our southeast with the surface high behind the front now moving east of the area with a return southeasterly surface wind already reestablished over the area. Even with slowly increasing low level moisture over the next few days, I still expect plenty of sunshine into the weekend. Temperatures will be turning warmer as well.

Clouds will increase substantially by late Sunday into Sunday night as low level moisture continues to increase across the area.

The weather pattern starts to look interesting for next week as some pretty chilly surface air makes it way southward out of Canada into the plains and then southward into Texas with a series of cold fronts set to move through the area. The first of those fronts is slated to move through the area Sunday night into early Monday morning with another expected about midday on Tuesday. A surface high pressure area will settle across our area in the wake of the second front for Thursday of next week. Another front looks to approach the area by late next Friday.

As the first front moves through late Sunday into early Monday, it appears that an overrunning pattern will develop with clouds and rain chances persisting until late on Wednesday into Wednesday night when the surface high begins to settle into our area. Temperatures will be much cooler in the overrunning pattern but should stay well above the freezing mark for this weather episode.

Skies will clear by late Wednesday night into Thursday next week as surface high pressure prevails across

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high through Sunday then falling to low to moderate confidence by Monday into Wednesday as it regards rain chances, frontal passage times as well as temperatures  locally. My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high for Thursday of next week.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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