Updated 845am CT – Monday / 24 February 2014
…. Cloudy and Better Rain Chances through the Middle Part of Week ….
…. A Little More Sunshine Late Week into the Weekend ….
…. Several Cold Fronts on Tap over the Next Seven Days ….
On this Monday morning…. a weakening cold front extends south southwestward from the Carolinas southwestward into southern Alabama and Mississippi and then off the upper Texas coast to near Corpus Christi and then westward into southwest Texas and northern Mexico. The surface high pressure area /1036mb/ behind the front is centered over southern Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northeasterly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a large low pressure area.. over southeastern Canada and Hudson Bay.. is resulting in a deepening trough (or line) of low pressure over the northeastern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.
The cold front that moved through our area yesterday is just off the upper and middle Texas coast into south Texas. This front will return back northward later today into tonight as an upper level disturbance approaches the area from the west.
By tomorrow into tomorrow night, as the upper air low pressure disturbance crosses the area, we’ll see a peak in atmospheric instability and lift and, as a result, our highest rain chances of the week. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible. As the upper air disturbance departs to our northeast by tomorrow night, a strong surface cold front will surge south southeastward across the area.
As the shallow surface wedge of colder air moves into the area, moisture will overrun the colder air with clouds persisting through Wednesday night into Thursday with unseasonably chilly air prevails.
Clouds will break with a partly cloudy sky.. return southeasterly surface wind and warmer temperatures Thursday into Friday before yet another cold front moves through the area Friday evening. I do not expect much sensible weather, other than a wind shift, with the front.
Partly cloudy skies will prevail with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday into Saturday night before clouds increase with slim rain chances by Sunday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is moderate high through the next few days (frontal timing and rainfall amounts throw in a bit of uncertainty). My forecast confidence rises back to high for Thursday through the weekend.
Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel