Updated 845am CST Monday / 18 November 2013

…. After Record Highs Yesterday.. A Little Cooler Today ….
…. Clouds Pick Up Ahead of a Strong Late Week Cold Front ….
…. Overrunning Clouds and Rain with Much Cooler Temperatures Next Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a cold front extends westward from Georgia into Louisiana and South central Texas then northwestward into New Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is centered over Kansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern and the cold front now south of the local area, surface winds are northeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure area is over southeastern Arizona with a stronger trough of low pressure offshore of the Pacific northwest coast. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west southwesterly 25 to 35 mph.

Some clouds persist this morning in areas generally east of the IH35 corridor but they should dissipate as the day progresses and the high pressure to the north builds into the area.

As the surface high, to our north, moves eastward and as the upper level low pressure disturbance to our west moves northeastward, we’ll see a return to a southeasterly wind by late tomorrow into tomorrow night and Wednesday. We’ll even see a slim chance of rain mid and late week as moisture returns and deepens over our area.

By Friday, a strong upper air disturbance will pass by to our north and reshape the upper air wind pattern to allow for a strong cold front to move southward through the area about daybreak Friday. As the cold front moves offshore of the Texas coast by late Friday, another approaching upper air disturbance will keep moisture overrunning the colder air with rain chances and clouds persisting through next weekend and even into next week as well. Temperatures will cool to well below average levels by late Friday and through next weekend and into next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the midweek.. then a moderate to high confidence forecast for the latter part of the week. Confidence falls to moderate for Friday through the weekend into next week (I have some questions regarding how much colder air will be with the cold front and if rain probabilities should be higher).

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CST Friday / 15 November 2013

…. A Big Warm Up In Store With More Clouds ….
…. Another Cold Front Late Sunday Night into the Predawn Hours Monday ….
…. Forecast Rain Chances over the Next Seven Days Look Slim ….

On this Friday morning…. a large area of surface high pressure extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean into the Carolinas and the southeastern USA. A developing low pressure area is over eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southwestward from Canada over the central and western USA. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground have increased and are west northwesterly 50 to 60 mph.

As the surface high to our east continues to move eastward and as another low pressure area deepens to our west, we’re seeing a fairly rapid return to warmer temperatures and clouds with some patchy fog in some areas this morning. Very slim rain chances show up by tomorrow as weak upper air low pressure disturbances move west-to-east overhead through the return moisture over the area.

Temperatures will be the big weather news over the coming days with temperatures warming to well above average and, in fact, may approach record levels on Sunday.

Another cold front will move through the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning with a very slim chance of rain. Cooler temperatures and clearing skies will follow for Monday through the middle part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the weekend with a moderate to high confidence forecast for the latter part of the weekend into early Monday (some questions regarding cloud coverage and rain chances and the exact timing and strength of the Sunday/Monday cold front) and then very high confidence for next Monday through Wednesday.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel