Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CST Wednesday / 12 November 2013

…. Fall Chill in the Air ….
…. Freezing Temperatures Possible Again Tonight ….
…. A More Unsettled Period with Slim Rain Chances Late Week into Weekend ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a large area of surface polar high pressure covers the area from the Ohio Valley region southwestward into Texas. The cold front.. that ushered in the colder air yesterday.. extends from central Florida through the southern Gulf of Mexico and into eastern Mexico then northwestward to near El Paso and into southwest New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are northerly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends southward over the eastern third of the USA. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly 12 to 22 mph.

Much cooler temperatures.. in fact, the coldest of the fall season so far.. will continue to hold across the area into tonight and early tomorrow. With winds lightening up by later today into tonight, it is very likely that early morning temperatures tomorrow morning, assuming a clear sky, will again fall to near the freezing mark especially in outlying and low lying areas. The freezing temperatures around the IH35 corridor and the Austin metro area will likely be away from the downtown area in outlying and low lying areas.

As this strong surface high moves eastward by tomorrow into Friday and as another low pressure storm system gathers over the western USA, we’ll see a fairly rapid return to warmer temperatures and clouds by as early as late Thursday into Friday. Rain chances show up by as early as late Friday through our upcoming weekend even though the latest guidance is pulling back on the rain chances.

Another cold front.. again, strong in nature.. will move through the area Monday early into mid morning with a slim chance of rain. Much cooler temperatures and clearing skies will follow for Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very forecast confidence through Thursday into Friday (some question about exactly how chilly it gets at night and when the clouds pick up Thursday into Friday) with a high confidence forecast for the weekend into early next week (some questions regarding rain chances and the exact timing of the Monday cold front).

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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