Updated 845am CST Tuesday / 26 November 2013

…. Upper Air Low Pressure Storm System Finally Moves Eastward ….
…. Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Unfolds for Thanksgiving 2013 ….
…. A Slow Warm Up Over the Coming Days ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a surface low pressure area is moving eastward through the northern Gulf of Mexico south of the Louisiana coast. Another reinforcing surface cold front is ushering in another chilly area of surface high pressure from the plains states with the center of the first high pressure area.. that brought our colder air in last Friday.. is just off the east coast of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are picking up northerly once again across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep low pressure disturbance is moving east southeastward over our local area. As it moves more east southeastward of the local area.. the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are increasing north northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.

As the upper level low pressure storm system finally moves east of the area today and shifts our upper level winds more northerly, another reinforcing cold front will move southward through the area with another chilly area of surface high pressure from the plains to build into the area. As a result, clouds will break as the day proceeds giving way to dry and stable late fall weather pattern across the area.

The dry and stable weather pattern will continue mid through late week with plenty of sunshine due for Thanksgiving 2013. Although daytime high temperatures will warm a bit, with the return to sunshine, over the coming days, overnight lows will be colder with freezes likely in the overnight hours both tonight as well as Wednesday night especially in the outlying, low lying areas.

As this latest surface high moves east of the area, we’ll see the return of a south southeasterly surface wind by Thanksgiving Day with an increase in low level moisture and more clouds along with even warmer temperatures by the weekend into early next week. Enough moisture may be present for slim rain chances by early next week.

The latest forecast guidance suggests that another area of low pressure will strengthen in the Rockies by Tuesday with another batch of much colder air breaking southeastward out of Canada by the middle part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then a high confidence forecast for the weekend into early next week.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CST Friday / 22 November 2013

…. Blue Norther Plows Through Texas ….
…. Winter Storm Likely Developing Over Texas Over the Weekend ….
…. Overrunning Clouds / Precipitation with Much Colder Temperatures ….

On this Friday morning…. a southward moving cold front extends southwestward from western Tennessee into northern Louisiana across the Texas coast then westward into northern Mexico. Surface arctic high pressure is centered behind the front from Idaho east southeastward to over Nebraska. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are gusty northerly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deep low pressure disturbance is off the southern California coast. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are increasing southwesterly 25 to 35 mph.

The strong cold front.. ushering in much colder modified arctic air.. moved through the Austin area between 1 and 2 am this morning.

As the cold front moves offshore of the Texas coast, the strong upper air disturbance, off the southern California coast, will keep moisture overrunning the shallow wedge of much colder surface air with rain chances and clouds persisting through the weekend and even into next week as well. Temperatures are now much below average levels and will continue this way through the weekend and into next week. Given the coldness of the air, we’ll see wintry precipitation develop over the northern and western parts of the area.. over the Texas Hill Country.. over the next day or so. However, another disturbance, due by late Sunday and Sunday night and early Monday will produce the greatest chance of wintry precipitation deeper into the area.. perhaps into the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor. We’ll need to closely monitor the forecast.. and possible winter watches/advisories/warnings that may become necessary. I’ll keep you informed.

Latest guidance suggests that another upper air low pressure disturbance will move through the area next Tuesday and this will cause surface development of a low pressure off the Texas coast. As these systems move eastward, clouds will decrease and rain chances will drop from the forecast.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Moderate forecast confidence through tonight and Saturday.. then a low confidence forecast for Saturday night into Monday (with intensity of the cold air being the question and the real possibility that wintery precipitation may need to be considered). My confidence then increases to high for Tuesday into Thursday next week.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel