Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CST Friday / 15 November 2013

…. A Big Warm Up In Store With More Clouds ….
…. Another Cold Front Late Sunday Night into the Predawn Hours Monday ….
…. Forecast Rain Chances over the Next Seven Days Look Slim ….

On this Friday morning…. a large area of surface high pressure extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean into the Carolinas and the southeastern USA. A developing low pressure area is over eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southwestward from Canada over the central and western USA. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground have increased and are west northwesterly 50 to 60 mph.

As the surface high to our east continues to move eastward and as another low pressure area deepens to our west, we’re seeing a fairly rapid return to warmer temperatures and clouds with some patchy fog in some areas this morning. Very slim rain chances show up by tomorrow as weak upper air low pressure disturbances move west-to-east overhead through the return moisture over the area.

Temperatures will be the big weather news over the coming days with temperatures warming to well above average and, in fact, may approach record levels on Sunday.

Another cold front will move through the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning with a very slim chance of rain. Cooler temperatures and clearing skies will follow for Monday through the middle part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the weekend with a moderate to high confidence forecast for the latter part of the weekend into early Monday (some questions regarding cloud coverage and rain chances and the exact timing and strength of the Sunday/Monday cold front) and then very high confidence for next Monday through Wednesday.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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