Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 845am CST Thursday / 14 November 2013

…. A Warm Up In Store ….
…. A More Unsettled Period with Slim Rain Chances Late Week into Weekend ….
…. Another Cold Front Late Sunday Night into the Predawn Hours Monday ….

On this Thursday morning…. a large area of surface high pressure covers the area from the Carolinas west southwestward into southeastern Texas. A cold front extends southwestward from the Great Lakes into Colorado and southern Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southwestward over the central part of the USA. As a result of the overall upper level wind flow, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly 25 to 35 mph.

As the surface high to our east continues to move eastward and as another low pressure area deepens to our west, we’ll see a fairly rapid return to warmer temperatures and clouds later today through tonight into tomorrow. Rain chances show up by as early as late tonight and again over the weekend even though the latest guidance continues to pulling back on the rain chances.

Another cold front.. a little weaker and slower in arriving that I thought yesterday.. will move through the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning with a very slim chance of rain. Cooler temperatures and clearing skies will follow for Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very forecast confidence through Thursday into Friday (some question about when the clouds pick up today into tomorrow) with a moderate to high confidence forecast for the weekend into early next week (some questions regarding cloud coverage and rain chances and the exact timing and strength of the Sunday/Monday cold front).

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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