Updated 800am CT – Friday / 31 October 2014

…. Dry Weather and Cooler Temperatures into the Weekend ….
…. A Storm System with Better Rain Chances Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a cold front is moving southeastward from a low pressure area near Memphis, Tennessee to southeastern Arkansas and western Louisiana to the Texas coastal plains then into northeastern Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over the plains states. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving deep trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends from southern Hudson Bay southward through the eastern half of the USA. Another strong trough of upper air low pressure is moving ashore onto the west coast. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are northerly about 45 to 55 mph.

As the upper level trough continues to deepen over the eastern half of the country, the cold front, supported by the strong northerly winds aloft, has passed through our local area and is now moving southeastward along the Texas coast.

In the wake of the front, a dry.. stable and very fall like weather pattern.. with temperatures actually below seasonal averages.. will prevail through Sunday.

Clouds will begin to increase Sunday as southerly wind return to our area. Longer range guidance suggests that another cold front will progress through Texas.. in combination with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance.. by the first into the middle part of next week. The latest guidance suggests that this system may be slower to move out of the area than we’ve been thinking with rain chances potentially extending even longer into next week. Our current data suggests that we could see rains of up to 2 inches for early next week.. however.. if the slower motion, as suggested above, materializes, our rainfall could be even heavier for next week. It’s something we need to watch closely.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through Sunday. My confidence falls back to medium for the most of next week regarding timing of rain, the potential slowing of the system as well as the timing of the cold frontal passage.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 30 October 2014

…. Another Cold Front Arrives by Late Tonight ….
…. Rain Chances Slim As the Front Moves Through ….
…. Watching a Storm System with Better Rain Chances Early/Mid Part of Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a cold front is settling southeastward from a low pressure area off the coast of South Carolina then across northern Florida and over te Gulf of Mexico into far south Texas and northeastern Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over the Ohio Valley southwestward to over Arkansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving developing trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends from southern Hudson Bay southward through the eastern half of the USA. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are north northwesterly about 25 to 30 mph.

As the upper level trough continues to moves eastward and deepen over the eastern half of the country, another cold front will surge southeastward into Texas by late tonight into early tomorrow. Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will be slim with the passage of this weather system.

A dry.. stable and very fall like weather pattern.. with temperatures actually below seasonal averages.. will prevail for the Friday through Sunday time period.

Longer range guidance suggests that another cold front will progress through Texas.. in combination with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance.. by the first into the middle part of next week. Initial data suggests that this could produce a better chance of rain locally with rains potentially totaling 1 to 2 inches.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through tonight with some uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts and exact frontal timing with the cold front. My confidence rises back to very high for tomorrow through Sunday with my confidence falling back to medium for the first half of next week regarding timing of rain and the potential cold frontal passage.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel