Updated 800am CT – Friday / 31 October 2014
…. Dry Weather and Cooler Temperatures into the Weekend ….
…. A Storm System with Better Rain Chances Next Week ….
On this Friday morning…. a cold front is moving southeastward from a low pressure area near Memphis, Tennessee to southeastern Arkansas and western Louisiana to the Texas coastal plains then into northeastern Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over the plains states. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving deep trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends from southern Hudson Bay southward through the eastern half of the USA. Another strong trough of upper air low pressure is moving ashore onto the west coast. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are northerly about 45 to 55 mph.
As the upper level trough continues to deepen over the eastern half of the country, the cold front, supported by the strong northerly winds aloft, has passed through our local area and is now moving southeastward along the Texas coast.
In the wake of the front, a dry.. stable and very fall like weather pattern.. with temperatures actually below seasonal averages.. will prevail through Sunday.
Clouds will begin to increase Sunday as southerly wind return to our area. Longer range guidance suggests that another cold front will progress through Texas.. in combination with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance.. by the first into the middle part of next week. The latest guidance suggests that this system may be slower to move out of the area than we’ve been thinking with rain chances potentially extending even longer into next week. Our current data suggests that we could see rains of up to 2 inches for early next week.. however.. if the slower motion, as suggested above, materializes, our rainfall could be even heavier for next week. It’s something we need to watch closely.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through Sunday. My confidence falls back to medium for the most of next week regarding timing of rain, the potential slowing of the system as well as the timing of the cold frontal passage.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel