Updated 800am CT – Monday / 27 October 2014
…. The Dry Stable Weather Pattern Continues into the New Week ….
…. Above Average Afternoon Highs Continue ….
…. A Weak Cold Front Arrives by Tomorrow Night ….
…. A Stronger Cold Front Arrives by Late Thursday ….
On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern USA. Low pressure extends southwestward from Iowa into Kansas and southern Colorado with a cold front from western Iowa into Kansas and southern Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends from western Kansas across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and into west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving developing trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends from southern Canada through the Rockies. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are west southwesterly about 25 mph.
A dry and stable weather pattern continues into the new week with above average afternoon high temperatures continuing as well. Even though we didn’t see high temperature records over the weekend, afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s were still common which are about 5 to 10 degrees above 30 year averages for this time of year.
As the upper level trough moves eastward out of the Rockies into the plains by tomorrow into tomorrow night, the cold front to our northwest will move southeastward into Texas. The front is expected into our local area by tomorrow night but it will weaken quickly and wash out just to the south of the local area. Although it is a relatively slim chance, we could see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves across the area tomorrow into tomorrow night. Temperatures, behind this weak initial front, will cool down closer to seasonal averages for the Wednesday and Thursday time period.
As the upper air trough moves northeastward through Wednesday and Thursday and a deeper trough develops over the eastern USA, another stronger cold front will surge southeastward into Texas by late Thursday into Thursday night. Again, rain shower and thunderstorm chances will be slim with the passage of this weather system.
A dry.. stable and very fall like weather pattern.. with temperatures actually a bit below seasonal averages.. will prevail for Friday through the upcoming weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through Thursday and Thursday night with some uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts and exact frontal timing. My confidence rises back to very high for Friday through next weekend.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel