Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 29 October 2014
…. Temperatures Cool Down a Few Degrees ….
…. A Stronger Cold Front Arrives by Late Tomorrow Night ….
…. Rain Chances Slim As the Front Moves Through ….
…. Watching a Storm System with Better Rain Chances Early/Mid Part of Next Week ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front is settling southeastward from a low pressure area over northern Alabama into southern Mississippi and Louisiana to just onshore of the Texas coast then westward to near Laredo and west northwestward into northeastern Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over the central plains and the Rockies. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving developing trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends from southern Hudson Bay southward through the eastern half of the USA. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are northwesterly about 25 to 30 mph.
As the upper level trough continues to moves eastward and deepen over the eastern half of the country, the weakening cold front has moved southeastward to near the Texas coast. The front will weaken quickly and wash out over the next 24 hours. Temperatures, behind this weak initial front, will cool down closer to seasonal averages for the today into tonight.
As the upper air trough moves northeastward through Wednesday and Thursday and a deeper trough develops over the eastern USA, another stronger cold front will surge southeastward into Texas by tomorrow night. Again, rain shower and thunderstorm chances will be slim with the passage of this weather system.
A dry.. stable and very fall like weather pattern.. with temperatures actually a bit below seasonal averages.. will prevail for the Friday through Sunday time period.
Longer range guidance suggests that another cold front will progress through Texas.. in combination with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance.. by the first half of next week. Initial data suggests that this could produce a better chance of rain locally with rains potentially totaling 1 inch or even more.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through tomorrow and tomorrow night with some uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts and exact frontal timing with the front tomorrow night. My confidence rises back to very high for Friday through Sunday with my confidence falling back to medium for the first half of next week regarding timing of rain and the potential cold frontal passage.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel