Updated 800am CT – Tuesday / 28 October 2014
…. A Weak Cold Front Arrives Today ….
…. A Stronger Cold Front Arrives by Late Thursday ….
…. Rain Chances Slim As the Fronts Move Through ….
On this Tuesday morning…. a cold front is settling southeastward from southeastern Missouri into north and western Arkansas and extreme southeastern Oklahoma and north central Texas into far west Texas and southern New Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. is over the Rockies and the intermountain west. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly ahead of the front.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a eastward moving developing trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends from Minnesota through Texas and the southern plains states. As a result, our upper winds at 18,500 feet are west northwesterly about 30 to 35 mph.
As the upper level trough continues to moves eastward through the plains into the Mississippi Valley, the cold front to our northwest will continue as well to move southeastward through the state. The front is expected into our local area by later today but it will weaken quickly and wash out to the southeast of the local area. Although it is a relatively slim chance, we could see isolated rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves across the area today into tonight. Temperatures, behind this weak initial front, will cool down closer to seasonal averages for the Wednesday and Thursday time period.
As the upper air trough moves northeastward through Wednesday and Thursday and a deeper trough develops over the eastern USA, another stronger cold front will surge southeastward into Texas by late Thursday into Thursday night. Again, rain shower and thunderstorm chances will be slim with the passage of this weather system.
A dry.. stable and very fall like weather pattern.. with temperatures actually a bit below seasonal averages.. will prevail for Friday through the upcoming weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through Thursday with some uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts and exact frontal timing with the fronts today again Thursday. My confidence rises back to very high for Friday through next weekend.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel