Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Weak Front Takes Edge Off Temperatures Briefly; Rain Chances Return Sunday into Next Week (Fr/10Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 10 September 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and stable weather pattern continues as upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, remains overhead. In the wake of a weak cold front, that has backdoored its way into the area coming in from the northeast, drier and slightly cooler air has taken hold.

(2) By Sunday and into early next week, it appears that Gulf of Mexico moisture flow will increase as southeasterly surface wind returns and our atmosphere becomes more moist and unstable. There is a weak tropical system forecast over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend that may become part of the forecast story, so we’ll need to monitor closely. Based on the latest guidance, I will continue the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms into the forecast beginning on Sunday and continuing through mid and late week.  

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting little in the way of rainfall – any rainfall amounts should around 1 inch.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high forecast confidence through Thursday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 10 September 2021

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 94. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 68. Light easterly wind becoming calm.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 96. Calm wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 70. Light east southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 94. Light east southeasterly wind becoming 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. early Late night low clouds. Low 74. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch or less. High 91. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 74. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch. High 90. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 50%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY….  Some early morning low clouds then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch or less. High 92. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 inch or less. High 92. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Friday / 17 September 2021 through Thursday / 23 September 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average  
Precipitation…  Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (10 September)…………………………………… 7:13 am
Sunset this evening (10 September)…………………………………….. 7:43 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (11 September)……………………………………….. 7:13 am
Sunset tomorrow (11 September)………………………………………… 7:42 pm

A Weak Cold Front Moves in From the Northeast; Rain Chances Return By Early Next Week (Th/09Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 09 September 2021

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Afternoon Heat Index Values As High as 103 F Today …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and stable weather pattern continues as upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, remains overhead.

(2) A weak cold front has “backdoored” its way into our area coming in from the northeast. No precipitation is expected given the stable atmosphere in place.

(3) By late in the weekend and into early next week, it appears that Gulf of Mexico moisture flow will increase a bit as our atmosphere becomes more unstable. There is a weak tropical system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that may become part of the forecast story, so we’ll need to monitor this. Based on the latest guidance, I will continue the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms into the forecast beginning on Tuesday mainly timed with maximum daytime heating and in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting little in the way of rainfall – any rainfall amounts should around 1 inch.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high forecast confidence through Monday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 09 September 2021

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 99. Afternoon heat index values 103. North northeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 69. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 100. Afternoon heat index values 104. Calm wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 69. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 98. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. Light east southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Light east southeasterly wind becoming 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 73. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 93. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10 inch or less. Low 74. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 92. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. A 20%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.05 inch. Low 74. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY….  Some early morning low clouds then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 92. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Thursday / 16 September 2021 through Wednesday / 22 September 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average  
Precipitation…  Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09 September)…………………………………… 7:12 am
Sunset this evening (09 September)…………………………………….. 7:44 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (10 September)……………………………………….. 7:13 am
Sunset tomorrow (10 September)………………………………………… 7:43 pm