ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Tropical Weather Update #4
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1035am CT – Monday / 24 August 2020
… Tropical Cyclone Marco / Laura Update … … Continuing My Thought That There Will Be Little or No Effect for IH35 Corridor …
My Observations/Thoughts… After the major shift eastward of the forecast track of tropical cyclone Marco late Saturday.. things have been a bit more consistent overall.
The latest (10am) NWS/National Hurricane Center forecast solution continues to keep us on the drier west side of these systems with minimal if any direct effects for the IH35 corridor. A little stronger and gusty northerly surface wind will develop by mid week as the remnants of Marco (a depression) meanders west northwestward to near Bryan/College Station (by 7am Wednesday) while tropical cyclone Laura, as a hurricane, makes land fall in extreme southwest Louisiana (a little after midnight Wednesday night); this could result in an increase in fire danger in Central Texas drought areas that did not receive much rainfall on Saturday.
ALL interests along and inland onshore of the upper Texas coast eastward to the Alabama coast should continue to closely monitor the latest information from the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center and other trusted weather sources. Always be a good critical thinker.. avoid unknown/untrusted social media sources that display the worse cases forecast scenarios in order to get the most social media “clicks.“
I’ll continuing to monitor.. just in case (after all, it is 2020)!!
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets… @troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… A Lightning / Strong Gusty Wind Threat Late Tonight with Any Thunderstorms …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) Low level moisture (higher surface dew point temperatures) have returned overnight into our area with the presence of early morning low clouds.
(2) Short range, high resolution model guidance suggests a series of southeastward moving upper air low pressure disturbances will move across our area later today through tonight and into tomorrow. Given the return of low level moisture, we’ll see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms later today through tonight into tomorrow and lingering into tomorrow evening. Rainfall, where it occurs, will be minimal with rainfall amounts generally less than 0.25″.
(3) Upper level high pressure will once again strengthen a bit over the area Sunday into the early and middle part of next week with abundant sunshine and above average afternoon high temperatures expected.
(3) We’re watching the tropics closely as a tropical cyclone, current a tropical depression, moves west northwestward from the western Caribbean. Current projections from meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center suggest the system will cross the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow into tomorrow night before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening to a minimal hurricane before making landfall somewhere on the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast Tuesday night into early Wednesday. If this general path verifies, we will stay on the typically dry west side of the system with a northerly surface wind increasing locally. At this point, I will not mention rain chances locally.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS… Today into Early Tonight.. Very high forecast confidence Later Tonight Through Tomorrow Night.. Medium to High Confidence (Reference rain chances) Sunday through Wednesday.. High to very high confidence Thursday.. Medium to high confidence (Reference rain chances)
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas Updated Friday / 21 August 2020
TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny and more humid. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms developing with an associated lightning threat after 3pm; A 10% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 101. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Low 75. Light south southeasterly wind except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 100. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm with an associated lightning threat. A 10%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Low 75. Light south southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds otherwise sunshine. High 100. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Light east southeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 102. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. Light east northeasterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 102. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 101. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Light northerly wind becoming light and variable after midnight.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Light wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK Valid Friday / 28 August 2020 through Thursday / 03 September 2020… Temperatures… Above Average Precipitation… Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES….. Sunrise this morning (21 August)………………………………….. 7:02 am Sunset this evening (21 August)……………………………………. 8:06 pm Sunrise tomorrow (22 August)………………………………………. 7:02 am Sunset tomorrow (22 August)……………………………………….. 8:05 pm
