Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Few Thunderstorms Possible Later Today Through Tomorrow (Fri/21Aug2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 21 August 2020 ….

  
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning / Strong Gusty Wind Threat Late Tonight with Any Thunderstorms …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Low level moisture (higher surface dew point temperatures) have returned overnight into our area with the presence of early morning low clouds.

(2) Short range, high resolution model guidance suggests a series of southeastward moving upper air low pressure disturbances will move across our area later today through tonight and into tomorrow. Given the return of low level moisture, we’ll see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms later today through tonight into tomorrow and lingering into tomorrow evening. Rainfall, where it occurs, will be minimal with rainfall amounts generally less than 0.25″.

(3) Upper level high pressure will once again strengthen a bit over the area Sunday into the early and middle part of next week with abundant sunshine and above average afternoon high temperatures expected.

(3) We’re watching the tropics closely as a tropical cyclone, current a tropical depression,  moves west northwestward from the western Caribbean. Current projections from meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center suggest the system will cross the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow into tomorrow night before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening to a minimal hurricane before making landfall somewhere on the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast Tuesday night into early Wednesday. If this general path verifies, we will stay on the typically dry west side of the system with a northerly surface wind increasing locally. At this point, I will not mention rain chances locally.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Today into Early Tonight..
Very high forecast confidence
Later Tonight Through Tomorrow Night..
Medium to High Confidence (Reference rain chances)
Sunday through Wednesday..
High to very high confidence
Thursday..
Medium to high confidence (Reference rain chances)

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Friday / 21 August 2020

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny and more humid. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms developing with an associated lightning threat after 3pm; A 10% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 101. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Low 75. Light south southeasterly wind except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 100. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm with an associated lightning threat. A 10%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Low 75. Light south southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds otherwise sunshine. High 100. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Light east southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 102. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. Light east northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 102. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 75. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 101. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. Light northerly wind becoming light and variable after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Light wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Friday / 28 August 2020 through Thursday / 03 September 2020…
Temperatures… Above Average   
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21 August)………………………………….. 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (21 August)……………………………………. 8:06 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22 August)………………………………………. 7:02 am
Sunset tomorrow (22 August)……………………………………….. 8:05 pm