Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Few Showers and Thunderstorms Today; Big Weather Changes Ahead Late Week through the Weekend (Mo/07Nov2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 07 November 2022

 

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning Threat Today with Isolated Thunderstorms …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) South southeasterly winds have quickly returned in the wake of Friday night cold front with low level moisture having increased considerably. A few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible into early afternoon today.

(2) Late night and early morning low clouds are expected to continue with afternoon high temperatures well above seasonal averages through Thursday.

(3) Another passing upper air low pressure area and stronger surface cold front will make their way over the IH35 corridor late Thursday night into the early morning hours on Friday. At this point, I do not expect to see much in the way of precipitation as these systems pass.

(4) In the wake of the early Friday cold front, the coolest air of our fall season will move in as surface high pressure from the Rockies and plains states builds southward into Texas Friday into Saturday. As the cooler air continues to move into the area, a weak disturbance could trigger a sprinkle or two late Friday night into early Saturday as the much cooler air settles in.

(5) Right at and beyond the seven day forecast period, it looks like the much cooler surface air will be overrun by moisture with increased clouds as early at late Sunday and more likely into early next week. As a result, occasional light rain and chilly below average temperatures look to prevail by early next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, 0.25 inch rainfall totals over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the next seven days.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 07 November 2022

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat into early afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.25 inch. Becoming partly cloudy mid and late afternoon. High 84. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy through midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles possible after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 66. Light east southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY /ELECTION DAY/…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy through midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 65. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy through midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 65. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy through midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 65. Light southeasterly wind becoming calm late.

FRIDAY /VETERANS DAY/…. Becoming partly cloudy early as a cold front passes. Mostly sunny late morning through the afternoon. Breezy and cooler. High 72. Light wind early shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph by 8am with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles developing by midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Breezy and much cooler. Low 45. Northerly wind 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles before noon then becoming partly cloudy. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Much cooler. High 58. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 42. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 61. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 14 November through Sunday / 20 November 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (07Nov)………………………………………… 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (07Nov)………………………………………….. 5:39 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (08Nov)…………………………………………….. 6:51 am
Sunset tomorrow (08Nov)……………………………………………… 5:38 pm

Be Weather Aware Today With an “Enhanced” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms; Skies Clear with Cooler and Drier Air for our Saturday (Fr/04Nov2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 04 November 2022

 

Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms Later Today into This Evening
Will Produce All Severe Thunderstorm Hazards Including Isolated
Tornadoes, Hail to 1 Inch Diameter or More as Well as Straight Line
Thunderstorm Wind Damage …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dynamic upper level low pressure disturbance is quickly approaching Texas from the west this morning and it will move across the state by later today through tonight. As that occurs, an associated strong surface cold front will surge east southeastward across the IH35 corridor in the late afternoon into early evening hours. Scattered rain showers will be present through midday and into the afternoon today. In the 5pm to 8pm time period, as the maximum atmospheric lift occurs just ahead of the cold front, strong thunderstorms will likely develop within about 20 miles of the IH35 corridor/Austin metro area. Please note that this development could be just east of the area (Austin would miss out) or just west of the area or perhaps right overhead; the thunderstorms will form a north south line and then quickly move eastward as they become severe. Strong straight line thunderstorm wind, larger hail and even an isolated tornado are possible in the window of 5pm to 8pm. Once the front passes any given location, the severe weather threat will end quickly with rain chances tapering off west-to-east rather quickly as well.

(2) In the wake of the cold front late tonight, a cooler, drier and more stable air mass will take over with abundant sunshine and less humid conditions Saturday.

(4) South southeasterly winds return with low level moisture increasing late Saturday night into Monday and Tuesday of next week. Late night and early morning low clouds are expected with afternoon high temperatures warming to well above seasonal averages.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, 0.25 to 0.50 inch rainfall totals over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the next seven days.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 04 November 2022

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy, breezy and unseasonably warm. Scattered rain showers continuing into the early and mid afternoon hours. Scattered strong thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat will develop after 5pm with possible large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind and even an isolated tornado especially northeast of Austin. Rainfall, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Scattered strong thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 8pm with possible large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind and even an isolated tornado especially northeast of Austin. Cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front passes around 7pm. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat for an hour or two in the wake of the front. Clouds decreasing after midnight. Additional rainfall, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Low 52. South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph becoming more north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by early evening.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 74. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT….Clear. Low 50. Light northerly wind becoming calm.

SUNDAY….Sunshine and more humid. High 79. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds late. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 66. Light southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY /ELECTION DAY/…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 64. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 11 November through Thursday / 17 November 2022
Temperatures… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04Nov)………………………………………… 7:48 am
Sunset this evening (04Nov)………………………………………….. 6:41 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (05Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (05Nov)……………………………………………… 6:40 pm