Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Clouds and Sprinkles Linger; Pattern Turns Wetter for Late Week including Thanksgiving Day (Tu/22Nov2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 22 November 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Clouds and periods of light rain will linger with unseasonably chilly temperatures today into tomorrow.

(2) An approaching low pressure area and associated cold front that is forecast to approach Texas from the west and northwest late tomorrow into tomorrow night with the front crossing the IH35 corridor sometime late Thursday afternoon. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front tomorrow night through Thursday. However, the associated upper level low will linger to our west into Friday and Friday night before moving east of the area late Friday night into early Saturday. This means that the cooler air following the frontal passage will be “overridden” by moisture which keeps clouds and rain in the forecast into late Friday night into the predawn hours Saturday with clearing skies thereafter.

(3) A developing area of surface low pressure over the central plains states will result in warming temperatures, even perhaps a little above average (for the first time since November 11th), with plenty of sunshine Saturday into early next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, rainfall totals of 1.00 to 1.25 inch over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through Thursday night dropping back to a medium to high confidence forecast Friday and Friday night before increasing back to a high to very high confidence forecast for Saturday into the new week.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 22 November 2022

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch. High 54. Calm wind.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Some patchy fog late. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch. Low 49. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and a bit warmer with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 60. Calm wind becoming light southeasterly.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers becoming more numerous after midnight. A few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after midnight. Patchy fog developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of evening rain and increasing to 60% after midnight at any given location, will average less than 0.25 inch or less. Low 55. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY)…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes by late afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 67. Light southeasterly wind shifting northerly by late in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and breezy with scattered rain showers. Thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat, possible before 9pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average an additional 0.25 inch. Low 49. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch. High 59. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers tapering off after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 45. Northerly winds diminishing to 5 to 12 mph then becoming more west southwesterly toward daybreak.

SATURDAY…. Decreasing clouds before 8am then becoming mostly sunny and less humid. High 65. Westerly winds 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 45. Light westerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. West southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. Light wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 29 November through Monday / 05 December 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22Nov)………………………………………… 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (22Nov)………………………………………….. 5:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:03 am
Sunset tomorrow (23Nov)……………………………………………… 5:31 pm

Clouds and Cooler than Average Temps Continue; A More Uncertain Late Week Forecast (Mo/21Nov2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 21 November 2022

 

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Moisture return, over the top of cooler surface based air and referred to as “overrunning”, continues as a weak disturbance moves eastward across the area. Rain chances will decrease by this afternoon as the disturbance departs off to the east.

(2) Clouds will linger with unseasonably chilly temperatures tomorrow into Wednesday.. a few sprinkles are possible but rain chances are very slim for any given location.

(3) It’s with a cautionary note (see forecast confidence section below) that I mention an approaching low pressure area and associated cold front that is forecast to sweep across Texas late Wednesday into Thursday allowing a strong area of surface high pressure, from the inter mountain west and Rockies, to build into the state in the wake of the front early Thursday. A few rain showers may accompany the front early Thanksgiving morning but rainfall amounts will be minimal. Skies will slowly clear late Thursday into Thursday night with brisk north northwesterly wind. Expect sunny skies and warmer temperatures for Friday.

(4) A developing area of surface low pressure over the central plains states will result in warming temperatures, even perhaps a little above average (for the first time since November 11th), with plenty of sunshine Saturday into Sunday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests, on average, rainfall totals of less than 0.20 inch over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through Thursday dropping back to a rather low confidence forecast Friday and Saturday before increasing back to a high confidence forecast for Sunday. Computer guidance has been unusually divergent in thought in regard to frontal and post frontal rain chances Thursday through Friday and this continues in our guidance to mid morning this morning with the manual NWS/Weather Service Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, just issued, now showing widespread rain over the area, with appreciable rainfall totals, Thursday into Friday. I’ll keep an eye on this part of the forecast with likely revisions to that part of the seven day forecast as we sort this out.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 21 November 2022

TODAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with rain and rain showers likely through early afternoon with rain decreasing thereafter. Rainfall into early afternoon, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.15 or less. High 49. Calm wind.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy. Low 42. Calm wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 54. Calm wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 46. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and a bit warmer. High 59. Calm wind becoming light southeasterly.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers developing after midnight. Patchy fog developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 51. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY)…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers before noon as a cold front passes. Slowly decreasing clouds in the mid and late afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 68. Light southeasterly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy, breezy and less humid. Low 43. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy and breezy. High 66. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 45. Northerly winds diminishing to light and variable.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Light wind becoming west southwesterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light westerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 72. Southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 28 November through Sunday / 04 December 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21Nov)………………………………………… 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (21Nov)………………………………………….. 5:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:03 am
Sunset tomorrow (22Nov)……………………………………………… 5:31 pm