Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Numerous Rain and Storms Later Today Through Tonight as a Cold Front Approaches and Moves Through the Area Later Today – SEVERE STORMS Possible with Very Large Hail, Damaging Straight line Wind and A Tornado Threat; Cooler and Drier for the Weekend with Sunshine Followed by More Stormy Weather Next Week (Fr/02May2025)

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Remember, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility
to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx .
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so it
can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually)
of all NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..  Always check
the date and time of issuance of these NWS text products since, in periods of
tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Fr/02May… Lightning threat with any thunderstorm.. Severe and Heavy Rain Threat
Sa/03May… No weather hazards expected..
Su/04May… No weather hazards expected..
Mo/05May… Lightning threat with any thunderstorm..
Tu/06May… Lightning threat with any thunderstorm.. Severe and Heavy Rain Threat
We/07May… Lightning threat with any thunderstorm.. Severe and Heavy Rain Threat
Th/08May… Lightning threat with any thunderstorm.. Severe and Heavy Rain Threat

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With another approaching upper air disturbance and a cold front moving into our area later today, we’re in for another round of rain and storms this afternoon into tonight. The front will pass southeastward by the diner hour this evening before pulling up stationary along the Texas coast. Cooler temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail in the wake of the front Saturday into Sunday as skies partially clear.

(2) The front will return northward as a warm front by Monday with low level gulf moisture increasing again as another significant upper level low pressure storm system approaches Texas from the west by the middle part of next week with rain and stormy weather in the offing. Heavier rain with some localized flooding issues and some severe thunderstorms may occur the mid part of next week.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, my forecast is for 3.00 to 3.75 inches of rainfall, on average, for our IH35 corridor counties through the 7 day forecast period which ends in the early evening hours next Thursday.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high confidence forecast, with some uncertainty of timing and amounts of rainfall, appears for today through tonight then a very high confidence forecast for Saturday through Monday before a medium confidence forecast returns next Tuesday into Wednesday.

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Friday / 02 May 2025

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall diminishing after 11pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch. Low 64. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY (03May)…. Partly cloudy early then most sunny. A little cooler and less humid. High 78. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 53. Light east northeasterly wind becoming calm late.

SUNDAY (04May)…. Mostly sunny. High 79. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 58. Light easterly wind becoming calm.

MONDAY (05May)…. Partly cloudy. High 83. Light easterly wind becoming more southeasterly and increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 66. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY (06May)…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY (07May)…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch. High 83. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY (08May)…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes. Periods of heavy rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch. High 80. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting northwesterly.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 09 May 2025 through Thursday / 15 May 2025
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/25Apr2025)
Valid Saturday / 10 May 2025 through Friday / 23 May 2025
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Higher Than Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Fr/02May)…………………………………… 6:47 am / 8:10 pm (+ 2 minutes)
Tomorrow (Sa/03May)……………………………. 6:46 am / 8:10 pm (+ 1 minutes)

tk

All Winter Weather Threats Have Ended (1125am CT, We/17Jan2024 Update)

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update 14 – FINAL
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1125am CT – Wednsday / 17 January 2024


All NWS winter event warnings have expired as of 10am this morning.

This is my final statement on this event.

tk