Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Lingering Slim Rain and Storm Chances into the New Week; Temperatures Remaining Below Seasonal Averages into the First Part of the Week Before Increasing Sunshine and Warmer Temperatures Return As a More Stable Summer Weather Pattern Returns (Mo/07Jul2025)

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Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT
University of Texas weather conditions and see the live camera at THIS LINK.

On weekends and other holidays when this site is not updated,
I encourage you to check out the latest NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast
for metro Austin at THIS LINK.

Remember, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility
to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx .
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so it
can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually)
of all NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..  Always check
the date and time of issuance of these NWS text products since, in periods of
tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Mo/07Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Lightning Threat ..

Tu/08Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Lightning Threat ..

We/09Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Lightning Threat ..

Th/10Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress ..

Fr/11 Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress ..

Sa/12Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress ..

Su/13Jul…
Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress ..

7-DAY TEXAS TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…

There is no tropical threat to the Texas coast over the next seven days. 

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) In what has been a very difficult forecast situation, the remnant low pressure area that has been over Texas the last five days and has resulted in the disastrous flooding in the area, is still resulting in lingering rain and thunderstorm chances. Until an upper level ridge strengthens overhead a bit, I will continue with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

(2) Upper level high pressure should become better established overhead by mid into late week into the weekend with more sunshine and warmer temperatures and higher heat stress values.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, my forecast is for 0.50 inch or less of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast period which ends in the early morning hours next Monday.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the next seven days.

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Monday / 07 July 2025

MONDAY (07Jul)….
Becoming partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…
Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

TUESDAY (08Jul)….
Partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch.
Highs in the lower to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 100 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY (09Jul)….
Partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch.
Highs in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 101 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY (10Jul)….
Mostly sunny.
Highs in the mid to upper 90s with afternoon heat index values of 103 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY (11Jul)….
Mostly sunny.
Highs in the upper 90s with afternoon heat index values of 104 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY (12Jul)….
Mostly sunny.
Highs around 100 with afternoon heat index values of 105 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY (13Jul)….
Mostly sunny.
Highs around 101 with afternoon heat index values of 105 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 14 July 2025 through Sunday / 20 July 2025
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 04 July 2025)
Valid Saturday / 19 July 2025 through Friday / 01 August 2025
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal

tk

 

All Winter Weather Threats Have Ended (1125am CT, We/17Jan2024 Update)

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update 14 – FINAL
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1125am CT – Wednsday / 17 January 2024


All NWS winter event warnings have expired as of 10am this morning.

This is my final statement on this event.

tk