TK’s Austin/South Central Texas Forecast (Thu/23Feb2012)

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Updated 925am CST.. Thursday / 23 February 2012

TODAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 87 to 91. West southwesterly wind 8 to 18 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Turning breezy and cooler as a cold front passes by late evening. Low 42 to 46. Westerly wind becoming north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny and much cooler. High 59 to 63. North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear and colder. Low 37 to 41. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph diminishing after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Mostly clear. High 57 to 61.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with increasing clouds late. Low 38 to 42.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 63 to 67.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 48 to 52.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 66 to 70.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 49 to 53.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 68 to 72.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 51 to 55.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds then clearing and cooler as a cold front passes in the early and mid morning hours. High 60 to 64.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 1 Mar 2012 through Wednesday / 7 Mar 2012…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 Feb)………….. 7:03 am
Sunset this evening (23 Feb)……………. 6:26 pm
Sunrise Friday (24 Feb)…………………… 7:02 pm
Sunset Friday (24 Feb)……………………. 6:26 pm

….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED WEDNESDAY / 22 FEBRUARY 2012…
(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)

Molds….. 1590 gr/cubic meter (High) – Up Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…None Reported …
Trees…… 328 gr/cubic meter (High) – Up Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
…American Elm 32.. Ash 296..

TK’s Weather Discussion (Thu/23Feb2012)

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Updated  925am Thursday / 23 February 2012

…. Above Average Temps Last Few Days But Cooler Beginning Tonight….
…. Abundant Sunshine Into the Weekend Before Clouds Pick Up Next Week ….
…. A Dry Seven Day Forecast with No Rain in the Forecast ….

On this Thursday… a low pressure area is deepening over northwestern Oklahoma.. western Kansas and eastern Colorado. A southeastward moving cold front extends from the developing surface low southwestward into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a dry southwesterly surface wind continues across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located over the USA. Just outside of this counterclockwise rotation, a closed upper low pressure disturbance is centered over the west coast of the central Baja Peninsula. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds are moderate westerly across Texas.

Southwesterly surface wind flow is shifting north northwesterly as a dry surface cold front moves through Texas. Moisture return and instability in advance of this front is very limited so the  front will come through with no other sensible weather other than the wind shift and cooler temperatures.

Cooler.. drier and more stable air will build into the area in the post frontal environment tonight into tomorrow and Saturday as surface high pressure from the Rockies and the plains states moves our way.

As the surface high moves eastward, surface winds will return southerly by late Saturday night into Sunday and the first part of next week with clouds on the increase once again.

Another cold front.. Pacific in nature.. will approach the area and move through the area by Wednesday. Due to uncertainty in the forecast guidance, I will not include rain chances for this frontal passage at this time.

My forecast confidence through the remainder of this week and into the weekend is very high. My confidence for the forecast for early and mid part of next week drops to medium.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly clear as a cold front passes. Lows in the 40s with north northwesterly wind. For tomorrow, mostly sunny. Highs around 60 with north northeasterly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel