Updated 925am Thursday / 23 February 2012
…. Above Average Temps Last Few Days But Cooler Beginning Tonight….
…. Abundant Sunshine Into the Weekend Before Clouds Pick Up Next Week ….
…. A Dry Seven Day Forecast with No Rain in the Forecast ….
On this Thursday… a low pressure area is deepening over northwestern Oklahoma.. western Kansas and eastern Colorado. A southeastward moving cold front extends from the developing surface low southwestward into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a dry southwesterly surface wind continues across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located over the USA. Just outside of this counterclockwise rotation, a closed upper low pressure disturbance is centered over the west coast of the central Baja Peninsula. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds are moderate westerly across Texas.
Southwesterly surface wind flow is shifting north northwesterly as a dry surface cold front moves through Texas. Moisture return and instability in advance of this front is very limited so the front will come through with no other sensible weather other than the wind shift and cooler temperatures.
Cooler.. drier and more stable air will build into the area in the post frontal environment tonight into tomorrow and Saturday as surface high pressure from the Rockies and the plains states moves our way.
As the surface high moves eastward, surface winds will return southerly by late Saturday night into Sunday and the first part of next week with clouds on the increase once again.
Another cold front.. Pacific in nature.. will approach the area and move through the area by Wednesday. Due to uncertainty in the forecast guidance, I will not include rain chances for this frontal passage at this time.
My forecast confidence through the remainder of this week and into the weekend is very high. My confidence for the forecast for early and mid part of next week drops to medium.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly clear as a cold front passes. Lows in the 40s with north northwesterly wind. For tomorrow, mostly sunny. Highs around 60 with north northeasterly wind.
Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel