Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Wed/22Feb2012)

Updated  915am Wednesday / 22 February 2012

…. A Mostly Quiet Week Ahead Weather Wise for Austin and South Central Texas ….
…. Another Cold Front Due Through the Area Thursday Night ….
…. Above Average Temps Through Tomorrow; Cooler Late Week into Weekend ….

On this Wednesday… a low pressure area is developing over Oklahoma with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending west southwestward from the low into southwest Texas. A warm front extends from the low eastward into northern Arkansas.. northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a south southwesterly surface wind continues across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located from the Great Lakes states south southwestward toward Texas. Outside of this counterclockwise rotation, a closed upper low pressure disturbance is centered over the west coast of the central Baja Peninsula. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds are moderate west northwesterly across Texas.

South southwesterly surface wind flow continues over the next 24 hours with afternoon high temperatures continuing to be well above seasonal average. A strong cold front will move through the area during the late night hours Thursday night. Moisture return and instability in advance of this front continues to look a bit limited, again, due to the progressive nature of our weather pattern. I’ll include a slim chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast as the front passes.

Cooler.. drier and more stable air will build into the area Thursday night into Friday and Saturday as surface high pressure from the Rockies and the plains states moves our way.

As the surface high moves eastward, surface winds will return southerly by late Saturday into Sunday and Monday with clouds on the increase once again.

Another cold front will approach the area and move through by late Monday night into Tuesday with only a slim chance of rain and rain showers.

My forecast confidence through this week is high to very high with the timing of the cold front Thursday night and any associated rain chances being the main questions. My confidence for the forecast for late week through the weekend is high to very high. My forecast confidence for early next week is medium to high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy with low clouds developing late. Lows in the 50s to near 60 with a south southwesterly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds and patchy fog will give way to a partly cloudy sky and unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs in the 80s with a south southwesterly wind.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel