Updated 130pm CDT Thursday / 9 August 2012

…. Only Isolated Evening Thunderstorms Possible Before Midnight Tonight ….
…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Again by the Middle Part of Next Week ….
…. An Otherwise Dry and Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….

On this Thursday… a weak stationary front extends east-to-west from the Missouri boot heel westward through northern Oklahoma and into the northwest Texas panhandle and then northwestward into Colorado. Weak surface high pressure continues across our area. As a result of this surface pattern, a south southwesterly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, is located over the four corners region and the intermountain west with a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward over the eastern half of the USA.  As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northerly over our area.

Although a fairly moist tropical air mass continues across the area, the large stable upper level high pressure area to our northwest continues its influence on our area weather by keeping a “lid” on the atmosphere. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through midnight tonight and a slim chance returns as the atmosphere grows more unstable once again for the middle part of next week.

In short, I expect little change in the overall pattern. It looks like the mostly dry summertime forecast continues over the next seven days. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be at or above seasonal averages through the seven day forecast period.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see isolated rain showers and thunderstorms until midnight otherwise expect to see a few clouds with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, a mostly sunny sky will continue with highs just above 100 with a south southwesterly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
Issued 605pm CDT  / Sunday, 5 August 2012

…. Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Update (#3) ….

…. Ernesto Weaker and Disorganized ….
…. Overall Forecast Track Through 5 Days Continues to be Shifted More Southward ….
…. Based on Current Forecast Track, Threat to Texas Coast Decreases ….

On this Sunday evening, westward moving tropical cyclone Ernesto.. currently of tropical storm strength with winds of
50 mph sustained/60 mph gusts.. is centered over the Caribbean Sea about 220 miles SSW of Kingston, Jamaica.
Ernesto’s forward speed has decreased.. it is moving westward at 20 mph with a central pressure of  1006mb/29.71 in/hg.

The current forecast intensity/track.. as prepared by the hurricane specialists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center..
indicates that the system will continue westward through the western Caribbean Sea and make landfall by Tuesday evening
on the central and southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula before emerging back in the Bay of Campache by Thursday then
restrengthening to a hurricane before making landfall a second time along the east coast of Mexico just south of Tampico by
Friday afternoon. After landfall, it will slowly weaken over the mountains of eastern/central Mexico.

There is less uncertainty now regarding the forecast track and intensity of this system. You will notice on the NHC graphic
below that no part of the Texas coast is in the cone of uncertainty at landfall time. While it is still too early to say where Ernesto
will ultimately end up and how strong it’ll be when it gets there, it is becoming more and more clear that the threat to Texas is
decreasing. At the same time, however, the threat to the Bay of Campache and the extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico and
ultimately to areas along the east coast of Mexico are increasing.

Specifically, the effect on the Austin / Bryan-College Station / San Antonio metro areas is expected to be very minimal.. other
than perhaps a better onshore (southeasterly) surface wind flow with a little better chance perhaps of a few more afternoon/
evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Let me make it clear, though, that, barring any change in this system, these rain chances
(at least as I see it now) is no better than 20% for any given location through the next seven days. As well, afternoon highs will
continue in the upper 90s to lower 100s. In other words, our seven day forecast is “more of the same”.

You can see the NHC forecast track.. through the next 120 hours/5days.. at this link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5day?large#contents
(This link will remain active and updated through the life of Ernesto.. so keep this link handy)

All interests around the western Gulf of Mexico, especially from the Mexico coast northeastward into the Lower Rio Grande
Valley of Texas..should continue to pay close attention to the advisories and updated track and intensity forecasts from the
NWS/National Hurricane Center as it regards potential impacts for later this coming week into the weekend.

I’ll continue to monitor this system closely.

tk