Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Special Weather Briefing (605p/Sun 05Aug2012)

Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (
Issued 605pm CDT  / Sunday, 5 August 2012

…. Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Update (#3) ….

…. Ernesto Weaker and Disorganized ….
…. Overall Forecast Track Through 5 Days Continues to be Shifted More Southward ….
…. Based on Current Forecast Track, Threat to Texas Coast Decreases ….

On this Sunday evening, westward moving tropical cyclone Ernesto.. currently of tropical storm strength with winds of
50 mph sustained/60 mph gusts.. is centered over the Caribbean Sea about 220 miles SSW of Kingston, Jamaica.
Ernesto’s forward speed has decreased.. it is moving westward at 20 mph with a central pressure of  1006mb/29.71 in/hg.

The current forecast intensity/track.. as prepared by the hurricane specialists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center..
indicates that the system will continue westward through the western Caribbean Sea and make landfall by Tuesday evening
on the central and southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula before emerging back in the Bay of Campache by Thursday then
restrengthening to a hurricane before making landfall a second time along the east coast of Mexico just south of Tampico by
Friday afternoon. After landfall, it will slowly weaken over the mountains of eastern/central Mexico.

There is less uncertainty now regarding the forecast track and intensity of this system. You will notice on the NHC graphic
below that no part of the Texas coast is in the cone of uncertainty at landfall time. While it is still too early to say where Ernesto
will ultimately end up and how strong it’ll be when it gets there, it is becoming more and more clear that the threat to Texas is
decreasing. At the same time, however, the threat to the Bay of Campache and the extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico and
ultimately to areas along the east coast of Mexico are increasing.

Specifically, the effect on the Austin / Bryan-College Station / San Antonio metro areas is expected to be very minimal.. other
than perhaps a better onshore (southeasterly) surface wind flow with a little better chance perhaps of a few more afternoon/
evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Let me make it clear, though, that, barring any change in this system, these rain chances
(at least as I see it now) is no better than 20% for any given location through the next seven days. As well, afternoon highs will
continue in the upper 90s to lower 100s. In other words, our seven day forecast is “more of the same”.

You can see the NHC forecast track.. through the next 120 hours/5days.. at this link:
(This link will remain active and updated through the life of Ernesto.. so keep this link handy)

All interests around the western Gulf of Mexico, especially from the Mexico coast northeastward into the Lower Rio Grande
Valley of Texas..should continue to pay close attention to the advisories and updated track and intensity forecasts from the
NWS/National Hurricane Center as it regards potential impacts for later this coming week into the weekend.

I’ll continue to monitor this system closely.