Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
Issued 905am CDT  / Saturday,  4 August 2012

…. Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Update (#1) ….

On this Saturday morning, westward moving tropical cyclone Ernesto.. currently of tropical storm strength..
is centered over the Caribbean Sea about 350 miles SSW of San Juan, PR.

The current forecast intensity/track.. as prepared by the hurricane specialists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center..
suggests that the system will continue westward through the Caribbean Sea over the next few days before
turning more northwestward in the western Caribbean thereafter. Strengthening is forecast to hurricane intensity
by  the time it passes to the south of Jamaica by midday to early afternoon Sunday.

You can see the NHC forecast track.. through the next 120 hours/5days.. at this link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5day?large#contents
(This link will remain active and updated through the life of Ernesto.. so keep this link handy)

NHC forecasters admit that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the forecast track and intensity beyond the three
day part of the forecast. As a result, while it is too early to say where Ernesto will ultimately end up and how strong it’ll be
when it gets there, there is, based on the current forecast track, a good possibility that the system.. as a hurricane..
will end up in the central and/or western Gulf of Mexico by the mid to late part of this upcoming week with potential landfall
following by next weekend.

All interests around the Gulf of Mexico, especially from the Mexico coast northeastward across the entire Texas and
Louisiana coasts, should begin to pay close attention to the advisories and updated track and intensity forecasts from the
NWS/National Hurricane Center as it regards potential impacts for late next week into the following weekend.

I’ll continue to monitor this system closely.

tk