Much Colder Air Moving In with Better Rain Chances (11a, Mo/26Oct2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 26 October 2020 ….

  
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) After a brief return to a southerly surface wind yesterday, a strong cold front is moving through the area on this Monday morning. As the shallow wedge (only a few thousand feet deep!) of unseasonably cold air makes its way southeastward, a strong upper level low pressure disturbance, and its counterclockwise circulation, remains to the west with disturbances being ejected eastward over the area. This will result in a more unsettled weather pattern / an overrunning weather pattern with low clouds and better rain chances and much cooler/unseasonably chilly temperatures settle in for the first half of the new week.

(2) The main part of the upper level low pressure disturbance will finally pass overhead and off to our east northeast by late tomorrow into Wednesday morning with rain chances lowering and clouds clearing by late in the day on Wednesday.

(3) A dry and stable fall weather pattern will return, with abundant sunshine, for Thursday and Friday through our upcoming Halloween weekend. Although temperatures will warm a bit, I still expect temperatures to be below seasonal averages.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, for the IH35 corridor over the next seven days, suggests 0.25″ to 0.75″ for our area.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Monday / 26 October 2020

TODAY…. Cloudy and turning breezy and cooler with scattered rain and rain as a cold front passes by midday. A 40%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. Highs in the 70s this morning with temperatures falling well into the 50s during the day. Light wind shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy and colder with scattered rain and rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.10″ or less. Low 42. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with scattered rain and rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .10″. High 51. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain and a few rain showers. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .25″. Low 45. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain and a few rain showers mainly before noon with rain chances decreasing west to east during the afternoon. Decreasing clouds by late afternoon. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .25″. High 59. North northwesterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly clear. Low 45. North northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably cool. High 69. Northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 44. Northerly wind decreasing to 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 68. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 46. Northerly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph and becoming more northeasterly after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 72. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 49. Light east northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 74. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 02 November 2020 through Sunday / 08 November 2020…
Temperatures… Near Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (26 October)…………………………………. 7:41 am
Sunset this evening (26 October)…………………………………… 6:48 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (27 October)……………………………………… 7:42 am
Sunset tomorrow (27 October)………………………………………. 6:48 pm

Cold Front Due By Afternoon with a Stronger Front Early Monday (9am, Fr/23Oct2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 23 October 2020 ….

  
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A cold front is slated to move across our area by midday into afternoon today. The air mass, in advance of the front, seems a bit more unstable so I will update my forecast to include a few rain showers as the front moves across the IH35 corridor and then eastward out of the area. Following the frontal passage, breezy conditions and much cooler air will move into the area for tonight into tomorrow. Low clouds may linger a bit in the post cold front environment into the morning hours tomorrow before breaking with sunshine returning area wide by midday into afternoon tomorrow.

(2) After a brief return to a southerly surface wind tomorrow night into Sunday, a strong cold front is due to move across the area by daybreak Monday. A more unsettled weather pattern will result in an overrunning weather pattern with clouds and better rain chances as the front passes and the clouds and rain chances continue and much cooler/unseasonably chilly temperatures settle in for the first half of next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, for the IH35 corridor over the next seven days, now suggests 0.50″ to 1.00″ for our area.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Friday / 23 October 2020

TODAY…. Morning low clouds with a few sprinkles and rain showers otherwise partly to mostly cloudy as a cold front passes midday into afternoon. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10″ or less. High 84. Light southerly wind shifting northerly 12 to 22 mph and gusty in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler. Low 52. Northerly wind 10 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY…. Decreasing clouds in the morning becoming partly cloudy. High 73. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph becoming northeasterly by afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly by midnight.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny and warmer. High 86. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 18 mph and gusty by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy and turning cooler with scattered rain and rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front passes by daybreak. A 30%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 0.25″. High 70 around daybreak with temperatures falling into the 60s during the day. South southwesterly wind shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and colder with scattered rain and rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.10″ or less. Low 48. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with scattered rain and rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .10″. High 58. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain and a few rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .25″. Low 48. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain and a few rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .25″. High 60. Light northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain and a few rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .10″. Low 50. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain and a few rain showers. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .25″. High 70. Light easterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Friday / 30 October 2020 through Thursday / 05 November 2020…
Temperatures… Below Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 October)…………………………………. 7:39 am
Sunset this evening (23 October)…………………………………… 6:51 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24 October)……………………………………… 7:39 am
Sunset tomorrow (24 October)………………………………………. 6:50 pm