TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 20 March 2014

TODAY…. Mostly sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 74. East northeasterly becoming east southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then cloudy after midnight. Low 55. Southeasterly winds 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy. High 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers developing after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes in the midday into afternoon hours. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 73. Southerly winds 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4th inch. Low 52. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. High 58. Northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average only trace amounts. Low 47. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average only trace amounts. High 60. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southeasterly late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average only trace amounts. Low 51. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 67. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 49. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 69. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 27 March 2014 through Wednesday / 2 April 2014…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 March)……………………………… 7:34 am
Sunset this evening (20 March)………………………………. 7:43 pm
Sunrise Friday (21 March)……………………………………… 7:33 am
Sunset Friday (21 March)………………………………………. 7:43 pm

…. Change of Seasons Coming Up ….
We will experience the Vernal Equinox today… Thursday / 20 March… at
11:57am CDT.. this denotes the official beginning of the spring season.

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 20 March 2014

…. Humidity and Increased Clouds Beginning Tonight into Friday ….
…. Chance of Rain Friday Through the Weekend ….
…. Return to Sunshine for Early to Mid Parts of Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a cold front extends from southern Alabama and southeastern Louisiana and then a stationary front offshore of the Texas coast into south Texas. High pressure /1022mb/ is situated over north Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level low pressure trough extends southward over the eastern third of the USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

As this surface high moves east of the area later today into tonight.. low level moisture begins to increase and clouds will be on the increase with late night and early morning low cloudiness.  By late Friday into Friday night and early Saturday, as another cold front approaches the area, we’ll see a slightly better chance of rain.

Even as the Saturday cold front moves well south and east of the local area and surface high pressure settles southward over the area.. current forecast guidance continues to suggest that passing upper level disturbances gliding up and over the surface based cool air will allow for clouds to linger with some overrunning rain Saturday into Sunday and early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is very high today through Friday. By the weekend, my forecast confidence falls back to medium (timing of the cold front on Saturday as well any overrunning clouds/rainfall for the weekend into early next week being the issues). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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